{"paper":{"title":"How optimistic inflow forecasts distort dispatch, prices, and contracts in hydro-dominated power systems: evidence from Brazil","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["cs.SY","eess.SY","q-fin.EC"],"primary_cat":"econ.GN","authors_text":"Alexandre Street, Arthur Brigatto, Joaquim Dias Garcia","submitted_at":"2026-07-01T06:39:18Z","abstract_excerpt":"Centralized hydrothermal planning models determine generation schedules and electricity spot prices based on inflow forecasts in audited-cost power systems, such as those prevalent in Latin America, and provide operational benchmarks and decision support in hydro-dominated competitive electricity markets. Consequently, biased forecasts can propagate directly into both operational decisions and market outcomes. This paper studies how persistent optimistic inflow-forecast bias propagates through the Brazilian hydrothermal power system and market. For a stylized hydrothermal model, we show analyt"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2607.00504","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2607.00504/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}