{"paper":{"title":"Analyzing the Impact of Release Season and Production Budget on Movie Revenue and Profitability","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"Release season has limited effect on movie revenue compared to production budget and popularity.","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"econ.EM","authors_text":"Amirmohammad Sadeghnejad, Jason Le, Mohammad Jalili Torkamani, Pedro Gomes","submitted_at":"2026-05-10T23:14:52Z","abstract_excerpt":"The film industry is characterized by significant financial uncertainty, where large production investments do not always guarantee commercial success. This study analyzes the relationship between release season, production budget, and movie financial performance using the Full TMDB Movies Dataset 2024. A data mining framework incorporating association rule mining, clustering, machine learning, and SHAP analysis was applied to identify key drivers of revenue and profitability.\n  The results show that release season has limited predictive influence on revenue and return on investment (ROI). In "},"claims":{"count":4,"items":[{"kind":"strongest_claim","text":"release season has limited predictive influence on revenue and return on investment (ROI). In contrast, production budget, popularity, and audience ratings are significantly more influential.","source":"verdict.strongest_claim","status":"machine_extracted","claim_id":"C1","attestation":"unclaimed"},{"kind":"weakest_assumption","text":"That correlations identified in the TMDB dataset reflect stable drivers of revenue rather than being driven by omitted variables, selection effects in the data, or post-hoc model choices.","source":"verdict.weakest_assumption","status":"machine_extracted","claim_id":"C2","attestation":"unclaimed"},{"kind":"one_line_summary","text":"Movie revenue and profitability are driven primarily by production budget, popularity, and ratings rather than release season.","source":"verdict.one_line_summary","status":"machine_extracted","claim_id":"C3","attestation":"unclaimed"},{"kind":"headline","text":"Release season has limited effect on movie revenue compared to production budget and popularity.","source":"verdict.pith_extraction.headline","status":"machine_extracted","claim_id":"C4","attestation":"unclaimed"}],"snapshot_sha256":"23402301de279b7a67bcfda20da5766eae15d015fd6d4956c6a3d11635723159"},"source":{"id":"2605.12551","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":"d00aec26-bdab-4c9b-a6f0-f06927aff40a","model_set":{"reader":"grok-4.3"},"created_at":"2026-05-14T21:05:46.781761Z","strongest_claim":"release season has limited predictive influence on revenue and return on investment (ROI). In contrast, production budget, popularity, and audience ratings are significantly more influential.","one_line_summary":"Movie revenue and profitability are driven primarily by production budget, popularity, and ratings rather than release season.","pipeline_version":"pith-pipeline@v0.9.0","weakest_assumption":"That correlations identified in the TMDB dataset reflect stable drivers of revenue rather than being driven by omitted variables, selection effects in the data, or post-hoc model choices.","pith_extraction_headline":"Release season has limited effect on movie revenue compared to production budget and popularity."},"references":{"count":8,"sample":[{"doi":"","year":null,"title":"Paramount on Hollywood Accounting Thirty Years Later , author=","work_id":"42bf780c-01b4-490b-aaf5-6676017d2d07","ref_index":1,"cited_arxiv_id":"","is_internal_anchor":false},{"doi":"","year":null,"title":"(No Title) , year=","work_id":"1a07319b-2baa-4850-a0ee-116589976d62","ref_index":2,"cited_arxiv_id":"","is_internal_anchor":false},{"doi":"","year":null,"title":"Anthony and Garcia, Joshua R","work_id":"7d05f493-6fff-4e20-a6cc-a2f30f6ebc8c","ref_index":3,"cited_arxiv_id":"","is_internal_anchor":false},{"doi":"","year":null,"title":"The Box Office and the Long Tail: An Examination of the Effects of Streaming on the Distribution of Box Office Revenue , author=","work_id":"220e865b-356b-498f-bd55-9befc533f6aa","ref_index":4,"cited_arxiv_id":"","is_internal_anchor":false},{"doi":"","year":null,"title":"The Economics of Movies (Revisited):","work_id":"a743aa86-660a-4f38-bf03-b59061e00d64","ref_index":5,"cited_arxiv_id":"","is_internal_anchor":false}],"resolved_work":8,"snapshot_sha256":"738265933fa7048d12fb1563e365b3bab66de744f944258b82fed526d7b672bd","internal_anchors":1},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":1,"snapshot_sha256":"ee947f2e9004852cffbb9582a8948d394123dea4312603c3ee19713de5a4acad"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}