{"paper":{"title":"Evaluating the Impact of Epidemic Control via State-Dependent Markovian Switching Modeling","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["math.PR","stat.ME"],"primary_cat":"q-bio.PE","authors_text":"Irene Votsi, Samis Trevezas, Vasileios E. Papageorgiou","submitted_at":"2026-07-20T16:08:29Z","abstract_excerpt":"We develop an exact finite-population stochastic framework for SIR epidemics evolving under Markovian switching between intervention regimes. The epidemic state is augmented by a finite phase component, allowing transmission, recovery, and direct immunity-acquisition rates to depend on the active regime. Phase-transition intensities may depend on the current epidemic state, so that policy escalation can react to the number of infectious individuals. Exploiting the monotonicity of the susceptible compartment, we derive level-wise recursions for the joint Laplace--Stieltjes transform and probabi"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2607.18364","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2607.18364/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}