{"paper":{"title":"Reconciling risk-based and storyline attribution with Bayes theorem","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"physics.ao-ph","authors_text":"Andreas Hense, Petra Friederichs, Sebastian Buschow","submitted_at":"2024-07-15T14:55:17Z","abstract_excerpt":"The question to what extent climate change is responsible for extreme weather events has been at the forefront of public and scholarly discussion for years. Proponents of the \"risk-based\" approach to attribution attempt to give an unconditional answer based on the probability of some class of events in a world with and without human influences. As an alternative, so-called \"storyline\" studies investigate the impact of a warmer world on a single, specific weather event. This can be seen as a conditional attribution statement. In this study, we connect conditional to unconditional attribution us"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2407.10776","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2407.10776/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}