{"paper":{"title":"Generating Synthetic Rainfall Fields by R-vine Copulas Applied to Seamless Probabilistic Predictions","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"stat.ME","authors_text":"(2) Deutscher Wetterdienst), Martin Rempel (2), Peter Schaumann (1), Ulm University, Ulrich Blahak (2), Volker Schmidt (1) ((1) Institute of Stochastics","submitted_at":"2024-04-20T23:39:55Z","abstract_excerpt":"Many post-processing methods improve forecasts at individual locations but remove their correlation structure, which is crucial for predicting larger-scale events like total precipitation amount over areas such as river catchments that are relevant for weather warnings and flood predictions. We propose a method to reintroduce spatial correlation into a post-processed forecast using an R-vine copula fitted to historical observations. This method works similarly to related approaches like the Schaake shuffle and ensemble copula coupling, i.e., by rearranging predictions at individual locations a"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2404.13487","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2404.13487/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}