{"paper":{"title":"Forecasting future oil production in Norway and the UK: a general improved methodology","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["q-fin.GN"],"primary_cat":"physics.data-an","authors_text":"Didier Sornette, Lucas Fievet, Peter Cauwels, Zal\\`an Forr\\`o","submitted_at":"2014-07-11T09:41:18Z","abstract_excerpt":"We present a new Monte-Carlo methodology to forecast the crude oil production of Norway and the U.K. based on a two-step process, (i) the nonlinear extrapolation of the current/past performances of individual oil fields and (ii) a stochastic model of the frequency of future oil field discoveries. Compared with the standard methodology that tends to underestimate remaining oil reserves, our method gives a better description of future oil production, as validated by our back-tests starting in 2008. Specifically, we predict remaining reserves extractable until 2030 to be 188 +/- 10 million barrel"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1407.3652","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}