{"paper":{"title":"The forecasting of menstruation based on a state-space modeling of basal body temperature time series","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"stat.AP","authors_text":"Ai Kawamori, Keiichi Fukaya, Makio Ishiguro, Masumi Kitazawa, Yutaka Osada","submitted_at":"2016-06-08T12:56:42Z","abstract_excerpt":"Women's basal body temperature (BBT) follows a periodic pattern that is associated with the events in their menstrual cycle. Although daily BBT time series contain potentially useful information for estimating the underlying menstrual phase and for predicting the length of current menstrual cycle, few models have been constructed for BBT time series. Here, we propose a state-space model that includes menstrual phase as a latent state variable to explain fluctuations in BBT and menstrual cycle length. Conditional distributions for the menstrual phase were obtained by using sequential Bayesian f"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1606.02536","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}