{"paper":{"title":"Bayesian logistic regression for online recalibration and revision of risk prediction models with performance guarantees","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["cs.LG","stat.AP"],"primary_cat":"stat.ML","authors_text":"Alexej Gossmann, Berkman Sahiner, Jean Feng, Romain Pirracchio","submitted_at":"2021-10-13T17:03:21Z","abstract_excerpt":"After deploying a clinical prediction model, subsequently collected data can be used to fine-tune its predictions and adapt to temporal shifts. Because model updating carries risks of over-updating/fitting, we study online methods with performance guarantees. We introduce two procedures for continual recalibration or revision of an underlying prediction model: Bayesian logistic regression (BLR) and a Markov variant that explicitly models distribution shifts (MarBLR). We perform empirical evaluation via simulations and a real-world study predicting COPD risk. We derive \"Type I and II\" regret bo"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2110.06866","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2110.06866/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}