{"paper":{"title":"How Much of the Routing Gap Is Real? Decomposing the Router-to-Oracle Gap into Reproducible Specialist Advantage and Single-Draw Label Noise","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"cs.LG","authors_text":"Teng-Ruei Chen","submitted_at":"2026-07-03T15:49:40Z","abstract_excerpt":"Routing among large language models (LLMs) promises better quality at lower cost, motivated by the reported gap between learned routers and a per-instance oracle. But that oracle is computed from a single correctness label per (query, model), so under stochastic decoding it is one Bernoulli draw, not a reproducible property. We recast the question structurally: the expected per-instance oracle decomposes as $O^{\\exp}=O^{\\mathrm{repro}}+\\Delta$, into reproducible single-commit headroom $O^{\\mathrm{repro}}$ and a non-negative single-commit selection floor $\\Delta$. Our main result is a recoverab"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2607.03436","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2607.03436/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}