{"paper":{"title":"When should one stop the most exciting game? Sequential Inference for win-martingales","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"math.PR","authors_text":"Karl Kristian Engelund, Steven Campbell","submitted_at":"2026-08-12T17:35:49Z","abstract_excerpt":"Prediction markets have become a prominent way of aggregating beliefs about binary future events, and their price processes are often interpreted as evolving win probabilities, or ``win-martingales.'' Motivated by this perspective and recent work on Aldous' ``most exciting game,'' we study when a decision maker should stop observing a win-martingale and make a decision about the outcome. In particular, we allow the true outcome to be revealed at a fixed finite horizon, as in a sports game or election. Under a general terminal loss and running cost, we reduce the Bayes risk to an optimal stoppi"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2608.12291","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2608.12291/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}