{"paper":{"title":"\\texttt{calypso}: a Parameter-Conditioned Stochastic Surrogate Model for Circumbinary Accretion Time-Series","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"astro-ph.HE","authors_text":"Earl Bellinger, Magdalena Siwek, Matt Ho","submitted_at":"2026-05-21T20:25:01Z","abstract_excerpt":"We present calypso, a parameter-conditioned stochastic surrogate model for circumbinary accretion flows. We represent the total and individual accretion time series in a PCA basis and model the resulting coefficients as draws from a multivariate Gaussian distribution over the latent PCA coefficients. We specifically include the aleatoric uncertainty of the time series in the model, enabling the emulator to capture the inherent stochasticity of the accretion process and the long-term modulation due to disk precession. We further explore the epistemic uncertainty in the model due to limited trai"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2605.23006","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2605.23006/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}