{"paper":{"title":"How Certain are Uncertainty Estimates? Three Novel Earth Observation Datasets for Benchmarking Uncertainty Quantification in Machine Learning","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["cs.AI","eess.IV"],"primary_cat":"cs.LG","authors_text":"Christoph Koller, Dawood Wasif, Jonathan Bamber, Muhammad Shahzad, Qian Song, Xiao Xiang Zhu, Yuanyuan Wang","submitted_at":"2024-12-09T12:50:27Z","abstract_excerpt":"Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for assessing the reliability of Earth observation (EO) products. However, the extensive use of machine learning models in EO introduces an additional layer of complexity, as those models themselves are inherently uncertain. While various UQ methods do exist for machine learning models, their performance on EO datasets remains largely unevaluated. A key challenge in the community is the absence of the ground truth for uncertainty, i.e. how certain the uncertainty estimates are, apart from the labels for the image/signal. This article fills this gap "},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2412.06451","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2412.06451/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}