{"paper":{"title":"A barycenter-based approach for the multi-model ensembling of subseasonal forecasts","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"stat.AP","authors_text":"Alexis Tantet, Camille Le Coz, R\\'emi Flamary, Riwal Plougonven","submitted_at":"2023-10-27T07:12:03Z","abstract_excerpt":"Ensemble forecasts and their combination are examined from the perspective of probability spaces. Manipulating ensemble forecasts as discrete probability distributions, multi-model ensemble (MME) forecasts are reformulated as barycenters of these distributions. We consider two barycenters, each defined with respect to a different distance metric: the L2 barycenter, which correspond to the traditional pooling method, and the Wasserstein barycenter, which better preserves certain geometric properties of the input ensemble distributions.\n  As a proof of concept, we apply the L2 and Wasserstein ba"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2310.17933","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2310.17933/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}