{"paper":{"title":"Forecasting and decisions in the birth-death-suppression Markov model for wildfires","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["math.OC","stat.AP"],"primary_cat":"physics.soc-ph","authors_text":"David L. Alderson, George Hulsey, Jean Carlson","submitted_at":"2024-09-12T17:56:51Z","abstract_excerpt":"As changing climates transform the landscape of wildfire management and suppression, agencies are faced with difficult resource allocation decisions. We analyze trade-offs in temporal resource allocation using a simple but robust Markov model of a wildfire under suppression: the birth-death-suppression process. Though the model is not spatial, its stochastic nature and rich temporal structure make it broadly applicable in describing the dynamic evolution of a fire including ignition, the effect of adverse conditions, and the effect of external suppression. With strong analytical and numerical "},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2410.02765","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2410.02765/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}