{"paper":{"title":"Decoding the Early-Time Light Curves of Type Ia Supernovae. I. A Hierarchical Bayesian Framework for Demographic Inference","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["astro-ph.IM"],"primary_cat":"astro-ph.HE","authors_text":"Adam A. Miller, Chang Liu","submitted_at":"2026-06-30T18:00:00Z","abstract_excerpt":"Light curves of Type Ia Supernovae (SNe Ia) in the days following explosion encode the diversity of progenitor systems and explosion physics. We present a hierarchical Bayesian framework to robustly constrain the population-level light-curve morphology of SNe Ia by fitting a large light-curve dataset simultaneously to power-law rises. Using a multivariate Gaussian population prior, this framework automatically down-weights sparsely sampled SNe and noisy measurements in the inference, obviating the need for restrictive quality cuts that introduce selection biases. Validation on simulated power-"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2607.00075","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2607.00075/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}