{"paper":{"title":"Morphological Fingerprints of Forbush Decreases and Their Relation to Geomagnetic Storm Severity","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"Graph-based fingerprints from Forbush decrease networks carry measurable signal for classifying geomagnetic storm intensity.","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"astro-ph.IM","authors_text":"D. Sierra-Porta, Juan D. Perez-Navarro","submitted_at":"2026-02-18T01:39:10Z","abstract_excerpt":"Forbush decreases (FDs) are transient depressions in the galactic cosmic-ray flux observed by global neutron-monitor networks and are commonly associated with interplanetary disturbances driven by coronal mass ejections and related shocks. Despite extensive observational work, quantitatively comparing FD morphology across events and linking it to storm severity remains challenging due to heterogeneous station responses, coverage gaps, and the multivariate nature of the network. This work introduces a graph-based event representation in which each FD is mapped to an event network constructed fr"},"claims":{"count":4,"items":[{"kind":"strongest_claim","text":"The proposed fingerprints exhibit measurable signal for three tasks: (i) multi-class classification of geomagnetic storm intensity (G3/G4/G5) with moderate but consistent performance and errors dominated by adjacent categories; (ii) stronger binary severity screening (≥G4 vs. G3) with high sensitivity to severe events; and (iii) drop regression with partial least squares achieving positive explained variance relative to a fold-wise mean baseline.","source":"verdict.strongest_claim","status":"machine_extracted","claim_id":"C1","attestation":"unclaimed"},{"kind":"weakest_assumption","text":"That the chosen distance metrics and graph-construction steps preserve the physically relevant morphological differences between events without introducing artifacts that drive the reported predictive skill.","source":"verdict.weakest_assumption","status":"machine_extracted","claim_id":"C2","attestation":"unclaimed"},{"kind":"one_line_summary","text":"Graph-based morphological fingerprints from cosmic-ray station data show moderate skill at classifying and regressing geomagnetic storm intensity linked to Forbush decreases.","source":"verdict.one_line_summary","status":"machine_extracted","claim_id":"C3","attestation":"unclaimed"},{"kind":"headline","text":"Graph-based fingerprints from Forbush decrease networks carry measurable signal for classifying geomagnetic storm intensity.","source":"verdict.pith_extraction.headline","status":"machine_extracted","claim_id":"C4","attestation":"unclaimed"}],"snapshot_sha256":"e1510aab775f13dd92c1994a97ef271bc7a49af957893a920a265da6d674ddc4"},"source":{"id":"2602.16128","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"verdict":{"id":"1e8e132a-4a52-4db0-9742-7d844351c1b9","model_set":{"reader":"grok-4.3"},"created_at":"2026-05-15T21:42:46.698882Z","strongest_claim":"The proposed fingerprints exhibit measurable signal for three tasks: (i) multi-class classification of geomagnetic storm intensity (G3/G4/G5) with moderate but consistent performance and errors dominated by adjacent categories; (ii) stronger binary severity screening (≥G4 vs. G3) with high sensitivity to severe events; and (iii) drop regression with partial least squares achieving positive explained variance relative to a fold-wise mean baseline.","one_line_summary":"Graph-based morphological fingerprints from cosmic-ray station data show moderate skill at classifying and regressing geomagnetic storm intensity linked to Forbush decreases.","pipeline_version":"pith-pipeline@v0.9.0","weakest_assumption":"That the chosen distance metrics and graph-construction steps preserve the physically relevant morphological differences between events without introducing artifacts that drive the reported predictive skill.","pith_extraction_headline":"Graph-based fingerprints from Forbush decrease networks carry measurable signal for classifying geomagnetic storm intensity."},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":2,"snapshot_sha256":"37764b1de623f362becfa6c60d390d1658615fc731e36dc20393194f16333441"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}