{"paper":{"title":"Complexity and Misspecification","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"econ.TH","authors_text":"Drew Fudenberg, Florian Mudekereza","submitted_at":"2026-02-17T15:55:22Z","abstract_excerpt":"We propose a tractable model of repeated decision problems that combines concern about model misspecification, as in robust control, with a complexity cost, such as Shannon entropy, that makes pessimistic beliefs trade off statistical plausibility against simplicity. In a static setting, stronger complexity aversion selects more concentrated worst-case beliefs and tilts choice toward actions whose adverse scenarios are harder to summarize with a simple narrative. In a dynamic learning environment, complexity aversion can eliminate the endogenous cycles generated by misspecification concerns al"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2602.15674","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2602.15674/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}