{"paper":{"title":"Beyond Marginal Validity: Finite-Sample Guarantees for Localized Conformal Prediction","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["cs.LG"],"primary_cat":"stat.ML","authors_text":"Anton Conrad, Denis Belomestny, Eric Moulines, Rustam Isaev, Sergey Samsonov","submitted_at":"2026-08-06T15:59:57Z","abstract_excerpt":"Conformal prediction endows arbitrary black-box predictors with finite-sample, distribution-free marginal coverage, yet marginal validity can hide severe covariate-specific miscalibration, while exact distribution-free conditional coverage is finite-sample unattainable. Randomly localized conformal prediction (RLCP) mitigates this gap by calibrating near the test point while preserving marginal coverage. Existing theory, however, lacks finite-sample guarantees for the realized localized set that jointly control conditional validity and oracle efficiency. We provide such guarantees. For any fix"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2608.06206","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2608.06206/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}