{"paper":{"title":"Refined climatologies of future precipitation over High Mountain Asia using probabilistic ensemble learning","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["cs.LG","stat.ML"],"primary_cat":"physics.ao-ph","authors_text":"Kenza Tazi, Marc Girona-Mata, Richard E. Turner, Sun Woo P. Kim","submitted_at":"2025-01-26T22:35:24Z","abstract_excerpt":"High Mountain Asia (HMA) holds the highest concentration of frozen water outside the polar regions, serving as a crucial water source for more than 1.9 billion people. Precipitation represents the largest source of uncertainty for future hydrological modelling in this area. In this study, we propose a probabilistic machine learning framework to combine monthly precipitation from 13 regional climate models developed under the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) over HMA via a mixture of experts (MoE). This approach accounts for seasonal and spatial biases within the models, ena"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2501.15690","kind":"arxiv","version":3},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2501.15690/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}