{"paper":{"title":"Comparison of probabilistic nowcasts and forecasts of SARS-CoV-2 variant proportions made by hierarchical multinomial linear regression models","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"stat.AP","authors_text":"Benjamin W. Rogers, Evan L. Ray, Isaac MacArthur, Maryclare Griffin, Nicholas G. Reich, Thomas Robacker","submitted_at":"2026-05-21T16:19:22Z","abstract_excerpt":"Nowcasting and forecasting of infectious diseases have become increasingly important since the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. In particular, methods for modeling the composition of circulating variants at a given time have seen more use in part due to a large increase in the frequency of genomic sequencing conducted as a part of routine surveillance. However, methods must take into account that locations have different amounts of data and sometimes have different trends. We discuss hierarchical multinomial logistic regression (HMLR), a commonly used method for forecasting SARS-CoV-2 variants, which allo"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2605.22676","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2605.22676/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}