{"paper":{"title":"Selective Peer Disclosure and Reputational Forecasting","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"econ.TH","authors_text":"Georgy Lukyanov","submitted_at":"2025-09-01T08:53:57Z","abstract_excerpt":"Organizations often collect forecasts independently but control peer feedback before final reports are submitted. I study two career-concerned experts who lodge locked binary forecasts; one expert then receives a second signal and may observe the other's lodged forecast before revising. A platform commits to a report-contingent reveal-or-silence rule. Every policy admits a completely mixed babbling equilibrium, so the unrestricted equilibrium correspondence yields no strict policy ranking. The design analysis therefore conditions on regular-monotone sequential equilibrium, a maintained selecti"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2509.01264","kind":"arxiv","version":4},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2509.01264/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}