{"paper":{"title":"Climate-Invariant Conformal Prediction Intervals for Multi-Horizon Solar and Wind Forecasting","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["cs.LG"],"primary_cat":"stat.AP","authors_text":"Abhinav Bains (1), Banalaxmi Brahma (1) ((1) B. R. Ambedkar National Institute of Technology, India), Jalandhar, Shreedhar Gangwar (1)","submitted_at":"2026-07-13T12:23:11Z","abstract_excerpt":"Reliable uncertainty quantification is essential for integrating solar and wind generation into modern power systems, where operators must weigh risk rather than act on point forecasts alone. Existing probabilistic methods, however, often either lack finite-sample validity or require per-site recalibration, so a single model rarely transfers across the diverse climates of a dispersed generation fleet. This paper proposes a heteroscedastic, asymmetric, group-conditional split-conformal framework built on a bootstrap-diverse XGBoost ensemble, producing prediction intervals that adapt in width to"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2607.11470","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2607.11470/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}