{"paper":{"title":"When Certainty Is Not Worth It: Capital Lock-Up and Settlement Discounting in Prediction Markets","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"cs.CE","authors_text":"Florian Matthes, Jonas Gebele","submitted_at":"2026-05-29T15:27:12Z","abstract_excerpt":"Collateralized prediction markets are contingent-claim markets in which economic uncertainty can disappear before winning claims become redeemable. This paper studies the pricing effect of that delay. When collateral remains locked until oracle settlement, a near-certain dollar is a delayed dollar, so prices embed a maturity-dependent settlement discount in addition to beliefs about outcomes. We recover an implied settlement-discount term structure from persistent near-certain contracts using realized settlement times and summarize it as an annualized settlement wedge (ASW). The recovered wedg"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2605.31431","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2605.31431/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}