{"paper":{"title":"Entropic learning enables skilful forecasts of ENSO phase at up to two years lead time","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["physics.ao-ph"],"primary_cat":"physics.comp-ph","authors_text":"Davide Bassetti, Illia Horenko, Michael Groom, Terence J. O'Kane","submitted_at":"2025-03-03T11:06:10Z","abstract_excerpt":"This paper extends previous work (Groom et al., \\emph{Artif. Intell. Earth Syst.}, 2024) in applying the entropy-optimal Sparse Probabilistic Approximation (eSPA) algorithm to predict ENSO phase, defined by thresholding the Ni\\~no3.4 index. Only satellite-era observational datasets are used for training and validation, while retrospective forecasts from 2012 to 2022 are used to assess out-of-sample skill at lead times up to 24 months. Rather than train a single eSPA model per lead, we introduce an ensemble approach in which multiple eSPA models are aggregated via a novel meta-learning strategy"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2503.01412","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2503.01412/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}