{"paper":{"title":"A critical study of the Monte Carlo replica method","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["hep-ex"],"primary_cat":"hep-ph","authors_text":"James M. Moore, Luca Mantani, Maeve Madigan, Mark N. Costantini","submitted_at":"2024-04-15T18:01:02Z","abstract_excerpt":"We present a detailed mathematical study of the Monte Carlo replica method as applied in the global fitting literature from the high-energy physics theory community. For the first time, we provide a rigorous derivation of the parameter distributions implied by the method, and show that, whilst they agree with Bayesian posteriors for linear models, they disagree otherwise. We proceed to numerically quantify the disagreement between the Monte Carlo replica method and the Bayesian method in the context of two phenomenologically relevant scenarios: fits of the SMEFT Wilson coefficients, and fits o"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2404.10056","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2404.10056/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}