{"paper":{"title":"Scale-Free Priors and Survival Dynamics: A Bayesian Framework for Conflict Duration","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["physics.soc-ph"],"primary_cat":"stat.ME","authors_text":"Tomasz F. Stepinski","submitted_at":"2026-05-31T16:27:38Z","abstract_excerpt":"We have developed a fully Bayesian survival-analysis framework that reformulates inference about system lifetimes in terms of hazard and survival functions, and extends this representation to interacting actors. Starting from J.~Richard Gott's Copernican principle, we express the scale-free prior as a baseline hazard $\\lambda(t)=1/t$, thereby linking a static prior over lifetimes to the dynamic language of survival analysis. In this formulation, Bayesian updating corresponds to conditioning on survival, while the resulting posterior distribution admits a natural representation in terms of haza"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2606.01328","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2606.01328/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}