{"paper":{"title":"A Precursor of Market Crashes","license":"","headline":"","cross_cats":["physics.data-an","q-fin.ST"],"primary_cat":"physics.soc-ph","authors_text":"Taisei Kaizoji","submitted_at":"2005-10-07T17:46:28Z","abstract_excerpt":"In this paper, we quantitatively investigate the properties of a statistical ensemble of stock prices. We focus attention on the relative price defined as $ X(t) = S(t)/S(0) $, where $ S(0) $ is the initial price. We selected approximately 3200 stocks traded on the Japanese Stock Exchange and formed a statistical ensemble of daily relative prices for each trading day in the 3-year period from January 4, 1999 to December 28, 2001, corresponding to the period in which the {\\it internet Bubble} formed and {\\it crashes} in the Japanese stock market. We found that the upper tail of the complementar"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"physics/0510055","kind":"arxiv","version":4},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}