{"paper":{"title":"Predictability of a solar flare in May 2024 using observational data-driven MHD simulations","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"astro-ph.SR","authors_text":"Takafumi Kaneko","submitted_at":"2026-06-08T08:59:25Z","abstract_excerpt":"We examined the applicability of observational data-driven magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations to flare prediction. The target event was the X1.6 flare that occurred in NOAA AR 13663 at 02:22 UT on 3 May 2024. We employed a velocity-driven model, in which the photospheric velocity field was derived from the time-series magnetograms to use as the boundary input. The simulation showed a rapid increase in both thermal and kinetic energy density around the actual onset time and location of the X1.6 flare. We revealed that the flare was triggered by two-step reconnection, in which the initial tet"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2606.09226","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2606.09226/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}