{"paper":{"title":"Small-Coupling Dynamic Cavity: a Bayesian mean-field framework for epidemic inference","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["cond-mat.stat-mech","physics.data-an","q-bio.PE"],"primary_cat":"cond-mat.dis-nn","authors_text":"Alfredo Braunstein, Fabio Mazza, Giovanni Catania, Luca Dall'Asta, Matteo Mariani, Mattia Tarabolo","submitted_at":"2023-06-06T16:15:28Z","abstract_excerpt":"We present the Small-Coupling Dynamic Cavity (SCDC) method, a novel generalized mean-field approximation for epidemic inference and risk assessment within a fully Bayesian framework. SCDC accounts for non-causal effects of observations and uses a graphical model representation of epidemic processes to derive self-consistent equations for edge probability marginals. A small-coupling expansion yields time-dependent cavity messages capturing individual infection probabilities and observational conditioning. With linear computational cost per iteration in the epidemic duration, SCDC is particularl"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2306.03829","kind":"arxiv","version":4},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2306.03829/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}