{"paper":{"title":"The Judge Variable: Challenging Judge-Agnostic Legal Judgment Prediction","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["cs.LG"],"primary_cat":"cs.CL","authors_text":"Guillaume Zambrano","submitted_at":"2025-07-18T08:28:53Z","abstract_excerpt":"This study examines the role of human judges in legal decision-making by using machine learning to predict child physical custody outcomes in French appellate courts. Building on the legal realism-formalism debate, we test whether individual judges' decision-making patterns significantly influence case outcomes, challenging the assumption that judges are neutral variables that apply the law uniformly. To ensure compliance with French privacy laws, we implement a strict pseudonymization process. Our analysis uses 18,937 living arrangements rulings extracted from 10,306 cases. We compare models "},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2507.13732","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2507.13732/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}