{"paper":{"title":"One for the Future: measuring the mass transfer rate in the ULX M82 X-2 by using orbital period changes will take millenia","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"astro-ph.HE","authors_text":"Andrew King, Jean-Pierre Lasota","submitted_at":"2021-12-07T15:50:11Z","abstract_excerpt":"Bachetti et al. (2021) have recently claimed to measure the mass transfer rate in the pulsing ULX system M82 X-2 by following the change of its orbital period over 7 yr. We reiterate the known point that this method cannot give a reliable result (or even necessarily predict the correct sign of long-term period change) without a far longer baseline (here $\\gg 1000$~yr) or for systems with a much higher long-term mass transfer rate ($\\gg 10^{-4} \\rm M_{\\odot}/{\\rm yr}$), if they exist. Applying the method of Bachetti et al. (2021) to measured orbital period derivatives predicts that the well-stu"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2112.03779","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2112.03779/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}