{"paper":{"title":"Parsimony, model adequacy and periodic correlation in forecasting time series","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["math.ST","stat.TH"],"primary_cat":"stat.AP","authors_text":"A. Ian McLeod","submitted_at":"2016-11-04T21:00:48Z","abstract_excerpt":"The merits of the modelling philosophy of Box \\& Jenkins (1970) are illustrated with a summary of our recent work on seasonal river flow forecasting. Specifically, this work demonstrates that the principle of parsimony, which has been questioned by several authors recently, is helpful in selecting the best model for forecasting seasonal river flow. Our work also demonstrates the importance of model adequacy. An adequate model for seasonal river flow must incorporate seasonal periodic correlation. The usual autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) and seasonal ARMA models are not adequate in this r"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1611.01535","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}