{"paper":{"title":"Stabilization Without Simplification: A Two-Dimensional Model of Software Evolution","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"Software systems can become more predictable over time without reducing structural complexity.","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"cs.SE","authors_text":"Masaru Furukawa","submitted_at":"2026-04-08T06:03:42Z","abstract_excerpt":"Software systems are widely observed to grow in size, complexity, and interdependence over time, yet many large-scale systems remain stable despite persistent structural burden. This apparent tension suggests a limitation in one-dimensional views of software evolution. This paper introduces a graph-based, discrete-time probabilistic framework that separates structural burden from uncertainty. Change effort is modeled as a stochastic variable determined by the dependency neighborhood of the changed entity and by residual variability. Within this framework, burden is defined as expected effort a"},"claims":{"count":4,"items":[{"kind":"strongest_claim","text":"We show that, under explicit assumptions on non-decreasing average structural load, structural regularization, process stabilization, and covariance control, there exists a regime in which uncertainty decreases while structural burden does not. This regime formalizes the phenomenon of stabilization without simplification.","source":"verdict.strongest_claim","status":"machine_extracted","claim_id":"C1","attestation":"unclaimed"},{"kind":"weakest_assumption","text":"The four explicit assumptions (non-decreasing average structural load, structural regularization, process stabilization, and covariance control) hold sufficiently in real software systems for the existence result to apply.","source":"verdict.weakest_assumption","status":"machine_extracted","claim_id":"C2","attestation":"unclaimed"},{"kind":"one_line_summary","text":"Under stated assumptions, software systems can reduce uncertainty in change effort while structural burden remains non-decreasing.","source":"verdict.one_line_summary","status":"machine_extracted","claim_id":"C3","attestation":"unclaimed"},{"kind":"headline","text":"Software systems can become more predictable over time without reducing structural complexity.","source":"verdict.pith_extraction.headline","status":"machine_extracted","claim_id":"C4","attestation":"unclaimed"}],"snapshot_sha256":"ac934a922b1ffdca62d795717501dbee338ad5f1fa03e0b1bd162386da055375"},"source":{"id":"2604.06709","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"verdict":{"id":"dd92f587-4ee5-4e13-8608-76654ad24541","model_set":{"reader":"grok-4.3"},"created_at":"2026-05-10T18:19:55.610614Z","strongest_claim":"We show that, under explicit assumptions on non-decreasing average structural load, structural regularization, process stabilization, and covariance control, there exists a regime in which uncertainty decreases while structural burden does not. This regime formalizes the phenomenon of stabilization without simplification.","one_line_summary":"Under stated assumptions, software systems can reduce uncertainty in change effort while structural burden remains non-decreasing.","pipeline_version":"pith-pipeline@v0.9.0","weakest_assumption":"The four explicit assumptions (non-decreasing average structural load, structural regularization, process stabilization, and covariance control) hold sufficiently in real software systems for the existence result to apply.","pith_extraction_headline":"Software systems can become more predictable over time without reducing structural complexity."},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2604.06709/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}