{"paper":{"title":"Efficient Sequential Calibration with $O(T^{2/3-\\epsilon})$ Error Bound","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"cs.LG","authors_text":"Zihan Zhang","submitted_at":"2026-07-14T16:00:29Z","abstract_excerpt":"We study the online binary sequential calibration problem. A recent breakthrough by \\citet{dagan2024breaking} overcomes the classical \\(T^{2/3}\\) barrier for calibration error. Building on this result, we present an efficient randomized forecaster that achieves an expected calibration error \\(O(T^{2/3-\\varepsilon})\\) for some constant \\(\\varepsilon>0\\).\n  Our forecaster combines the \\textsc{SPR-Calibration} procedure \\citep{dagan2024breaking} with an outer Blackwell-style correction layer. The \\textsc{SPR-Calibration} procedure controls calibration with respect to a surrogate sequence of condi"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2607.12928","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2607.12928/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}