{"paper":{"title":"Data Scaling as Progressive Coverage of a Predictive Contribution Spectrum","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["cs.AI","cs.LG"],"primary_cat":"cs.CL","authors_text":"Chunlin Huang, Hongxi Li, Shihao Ji, Shuaizhi Cheng, Zihui Song","submitted_at":"2026-04-05T10:47:24Z","abstract_excerpt":"We investigate the hypothesis that real-data scaling laws are governed by progressive coverage of a latent predictive contribution spectrum rather than by token-frequency tails alone. We work with a suffix-automaton representation of text corpora and define a data-intrinsic global-KL predictive contribution spectrum, in which each state contributes according to its empirical mass times its KL deviation from a global next-token baseline. Across 12 real corpora, the tail slope of this spectrum is already strongly correlated with the empirical data-scaling exponent of a fixed small GPT learner. W"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2605.20196","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2605.20196/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}