{"paper":{"title":"UProp: Investigating the Uncertainty Propagation of LLMs in Multi-Step Agentic Decision-Making","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["cs.AI","cs.LG","stat.ML"],"primary_cat":"cs.CL","authors_text":"Bhavya Kailkhura, James Diffenderfer, Jinhao Duan, Kaidi Xu, Sandeep Madireddy, Tianlong Chen","submitted_at":"2025-06-20T18:34:04Z","abstract_excerpt":"As Large Language Models (LLMs) are integrated into safety-critical applications involving sequential decision-making in the real world, it is essential to know when to trust LLM decisions. Existing LLM Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) methods are primarily designed for single-turn question-answering formats, resulting in multi-step decision-making scenarios, e.g., LLM agentic system, being underexplored. In this paper, we introduce a principled, information-theoretic framework that decomposes LLM sequential decision uncertainty into two parts: (i) internal uncertainty intrinsic to the current "},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2506.17419","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2506.17419/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}