{"paper":{"title":"Updating seismic hazard at Parkfield","license":"","headline":"","cross_cats":["math.ST","stat.TH"],"primary_cat":"physics.geo-ph","authors_text":"Alvaro Gonzalez, Amalio F. Pacheco, Javier B. Gomez","submitted_at":"2004-10-30T14:29:50Z","abstract_excerpt":"The occurrence of the September 28, 2004 Mw=6.0 mainshock at Parkfield, California, has significantly increased the mean and aperiodicity of the series of time intervals between mainshocks in this segment of the San Andreas fault. We use five different statistical distributions as renewal models to fit this new series and to estimate the time-dependent probability of the next Parkfield mainshock. Three of these distributions (lognormal, gamma and Weibull) are frequently used in reliability and time-to-failure problems. The other two come from physically-based models of earthquake recurrence (t"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"physics/0411003","kind":"arxiv","version":3},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}