{"paper":{"title":"Fill-Side Behavioral Concentration on Polymarket: Identification Limits under Record-Level Attribution","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"Polymarket's non-retail trading exhibits uni-modal fill-side behavior, allowing tier-based separation of dominant participants.","cross_cats":["cs.CY","q-fin.CP"],"primary_cat":"q-fin.TR","authors_text":"Maksym Nechepurenko","submitted_at":"2026-05-12T07:01:35Z","abstract_excerpt":"This paper studies behavioral concentration in Polymarket's public executed-fill record and formalizes what that record can and cannot identify. A pre-publication reconciliation corrects the empirical scope: the archived extraction covers the legacy CTF Exchange over Polygon blocks 86,008,447-86,107,178, approximately 25 April 2026 17:09 UTC through 28 April 2026 00:00 UTC, rather than the full 21-27 April week stated previously. It contains 13,356,931 OrderFilled records, 77,204 addresses with at least five attributed records, and 43,116 token identifiers; negative-risk markets are absent. Th"},"claims":{"count":4,"items":[{"kind":"strongest_claim","text":"density-based clustering (DBSCAN, fifteen sensitivity configurations) on the fill-side vector produces a single dense cluster with zero noise: fill-side behavior in the empirical window is uni-modal under the six-feature vector, contradicting the pre-registered hypothesis of four-to-five separable archetypes. ... whale-tier, high-frequency-operator, and power-trader tiers jointly hold 81.4% of total notional across 12.6% of addresses.","source":"verdict.strongest_claim","status":"machine_extracted","claim_id":"C1","attestation":"unclaimed"},{"kind":"weakest_assumption","text":"The six-feature fill-side vector remains sufficient to identify meaningful behavioral tiers and retail/non-retail separation after the G-QUOTE-LIFE failure removes quote-lifecycle information.","source":"verdict.weakest_assumption","status":"machine_extracted","claim_id":"C2","attestation":"unclaimed"},{"kind":"one_line_summary","text":"Polymarket fill-side trading appears uni-modal due to missing quote-lifecycle data, with whale, high-frequency, and power-trader tiers dominating 81.4% of notional across 12.6% of addresses.","source":"verdict.one_line_summary","status":"machine_extracted","claim_id":"C3","attestation":"unclaimed"},{"kind":"headline","text":"Polymarket's non-retail trading exhibits uni-modal fill-side behavior, allowing tier-based separation of dominant participants.","source":"verdict.pith_extraction.headline","status":"machine_extracted","claim_id":"C4","attestation":"unclaimed"}],"snapshot_sha256":"4014dd150ebff63922f3b075b8ddb3cc9a0c8c84a96faff3b918d041c71483d4"},"source":{"id":"2605.11640","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"verdict":{"id":"8629913d-82ad-4dbb-9068-ee67f1bba763","model_set":{"reader":"grok-4.3"},"created_at":"2026-05-13T01:19:30.253030Z","strongest_claim":"density-based clustering (DBSCAN, fifteen sensitivity configurations) on the fill-side vector produces a single dense cluster with zero noise: fill-side behavior in the empirical window is uni-modal under the six-feature vector, contradicting the pre-registered hypothesis of four-to-five separable archetypes. ... whale-tier, high-frequency-operator, and power-trader tiers jointly hold 81.4% of total notional across 12.6% of addresses.","one_line_summary":"Polymarket fill-side trading appears uni-modal due to missing quote-lifecycle data, with whale, high-frequency, and power-trader tiers dominating 81.4% of notional across 12.6% of addresses.","pipeline_version":"pith-pipeline@v0.9.0","weakest_assumption":"The six-feature fill-side vector remains sufficient to identify meaningful behavioral tiers and retail/non-retail separation after the G-QUOTE-LIFE failure removes quote-lifecycle information.","pith_extraction_headline":"Polymarket's non-retail trading exhibits uni-modal fill-side behavior, allowing tier-based separation of dominant participants."},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2605.11640/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[{"name":"doi_title_agreement","ran_at":"2026-05-21T00:31:32.055170Z","status":"completed","version":"1.0.0","findings_count":0},{"name":"doi_compliance","ran_at":"2026-05-20T14:16:33.709686Z","status":"completed","version":"1.0.0","findings_count":0},{"name":"claim_evidence","ran_at":"2026-05-20T04:02:00.374388Z","status":"completed","version":"1.0.0","findings_count":0},{"name":"ai_meta_artifact","ran_at":"2026-05-19T11:40:35.412930Z","status":"completed","version":"1.0.0","findings_count":0}],"snapshot_sha256":"41da1666cf31d78ce863569683480ba6920cc94b615fac02a86fe5a090cc1d5f"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}