{"paper":{"title":"Confidence curves for UQ validation: probabilistic reference vs. oracle","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"physics.data-an","authors_text":"Pascal Pernot","submitted_at":"2022-06-30T13:22:45Z","abstract_excerpt":"Confidence curves are used in uncertainty validation to assess how large uncertainties ($u_{E}$) are associated with large errors ($E$). An oracle curve is commonly used as reference to estimate the quality of the tested datasets. The oracle is a perfect, deterministic, error predictor, such as $|E|=\\pm u_{E}$, which corresponds to a very unlikely error distribution in a probabilistic framework and is unable unable to inform us on the calibration of $u_{E}$. I propose here to replace the oracle by a probabilistic reference curve, deriving from the more realistic scenario where errors should be"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2206.15272","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2206.15272/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}