{"paper":{"title":"When will T Coronae Borealis next erupt as a nova? Constraints from recurrence, orbital phase, and accretion-state evolution","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"astro-ph.HE","authors_text":"Qiang Li, Renzhi Su, Songpeng Pei, Taozhi Yang, Xiaoqin Ren, Xiaowan Zhang, Yongzhi Cai, Yu Liu, Ziwei Ou","submitted_at":"2026-07-16T17:44:08Z","abstract_excerpt":"T Coronae Borealis (T CrB) is the nearest symbiotic recurrent nova and is now intensively monitored for its next eruption. We combine three constraints on the eruption time: historical recurrence, orbital phase, and recent accretion-state evolution. Conditioning on no eruption by 2026 July 11, the three effective historical intervals give illustrative survival-conditioned probabilities of 30.2\\% for the rest of 2026 and 56.9\\% within the following year; these are empirical indicators, not physical prediction probabilities. The four adopted historical eruption phases do not select a unique igni"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2607.15245","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2607.15245/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}