{"paper":{"title":"Adaptive stable distribution and Hurst exponent by method of moments moving estimator for nonstationary time series","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["cs.LG","econ.EM","stat.ML"],"primary_cat":"stat.ME","authors_text":"Jarek Duda","submitted_at":"2025-05-20T08:36:49Z","abstract_excerpt":"Nonstationarity of real-life time series requires model adaptation. In classical approaches like ARMA-ARCH there is assumed some arbitrarily chosen dependence type. To avoid their bias, we will focus on novel more agnostic approach: moving estimator, which estimates parameters separately for every time $t$: optimizing $F_t=\\sum_{\\tau<t} (1-\\eta)^{t-\\tau} \\ln(\\rho_\\theta (x_\\tau))$ local log-likelihood with exponentially weakening weights of the old values. In practice such moving estimates can be found by EMA (exponential moving average) of some parameters, like $m_p=E[|x-\\mu|^p]$ absolute cen"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2506.05354","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2506.05354/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}