{"paper":{"title":"A Taxonomy of Distance Metrics for Time-Sensitive Importance Splitting: Timer Bounds, Resampling, and the Global Age","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["cs.LO","cs.PF"],"primary_cat":"stat.ME","authors_text":"Carlos E. Budde, Gabriel Dengler, Laura Carnevali","submitted_at":"2026-07-20T13:35:50Z","abstract_excerpt":"Importance splitting (ISPLIT) evaluates the probabilities of rare events in non-Markovian models. It requires a heuristic importance function (IFUN) that estimates the distance to the target. While including timer evaluations in the IFUN can substantially improve the effectiveness of ISPLIT, the existing time-sensitive IFUNs evaluate simulation states with respect to single sampled timer values. Thus, reaching highly important states requires simultaneously sampling specific combinations of timer values, yielding several unproductive simulation runs. In this paper, we revisit time-sensitive IS"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2607.17939","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2607.17939/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}