{"paper":{"title":"Evaluation of medium range machine learning models for sub-seasonal prediction","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"physics.ao-ph","authors_text":"Catherine de Burgh-Day, Chen Li, Debra Hudson, Griffith Young, Harrison Cook, Li Shi, Robin Wedd","submitted_at":"2026-06-24T05:25:28Z","abstract_excerpt":"The performance of two machine learning (ML) atmosphere models - GraphCast and FourCastNetV2 - is evaluated in the context of sub-seasonal prediction, including their ability to represent key climate drivers of variability, namely the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode. Model skill is assessed over both a 38-year hindcast period and a 2.5-year hindcast period. The longer period overlaps with the training windows of the ML models but provides a larger sample for robust evaluation, while the shorter period is independent of the ML model training period. This dual evaluation "},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2606.25417","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2606.25417/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}