{"paper":{"title":"On the optimality of antithetic randomization for cross-validation","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["stat.ME","stat.TH"],"primary_cat":"math.ST","authors_text":"Sifan Liu, Snigdha Panigrahi, Srijan Chattopadhyay","submitted_at":"2026-08-08T12:15:03Z","abstract_excerpt":"In the classical normal means problem, independent train--test folds can be constructed by perturbing the data with normal randomization. Averaging over $K$ such folds yields a cross-validation estimator whose bias depends on the marginal distribution of the randomization variables, while its variance depends on their joint distribution. This raises the questions: which joint law is optimal, and how to construct the corresponding randomization scheme? We show that: (i) for smooth estimators, antithetic randomization with pairwise correlation $\\rho=-1/(K-1)$ is necessary and sufficient for the "},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2608.08089","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2608.08089/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}