{"paper":{"title":"CoLT: The conditional localization test for assessing the accuracy of neural posterior estimates","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["cs.LG"],"primary_cat":"stat.ML","authors_text":"James G. Scott, Tianyu Chen, Vansh Bansal","submitted_at":"2025-07-22T21:38:59Z","abstract_excerpt":"We consider the problem of validating whether a neural posterior estimate \\( q(\\theta \\mid x) \\) is an accurate approximation to the true, unknown true posterior \\( p(\\theta \\mid x) \\). Existing methods for evaluating the quality of an NPE estimate are largely derived from classifier-based tests or divergence measures, but these suffer from several practical drawbacks. As an alternative, we introduce the \\emph{Conditional Localization Test} (CoLT), a principled method designed to detect discrepancies between \\( p(\\theta \\mid x) \\) and \\( q(\\theta \\mid x) \\) across the full range of conditionin"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2507.17030","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2507.17030/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}