{"paper":{"title":"Modelling Populations of Kilonovae","arxiv_id":"2205.12286","primary_cat":"astro-ph.HE","submitted_at":"2022-05-24T18:00:04+00:00","version_compiled":"v4"},"notice":"Every quoted sentence is the authors' text from the arXiv listing abstract. Labels and probabilities are the outputs of classifier-1.13.0 on the question bank abstract-p1-20260923, exactly as returned. 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astrophysics.","hedge":{"p":0.99,"label":"hedged_possibility"},"own_p":0.05,"main_claim_p":0.05,"quantitative":false,"quantitative_p":0.04,"role_probabilities":{"gap":0.0,"method":0.0,"result":0.0,"background":0.92,"limitation":0.0,"future_work":0.01,"contribution":0.0,"interpretation":0.07}},{"i":2,"p":0.99,"id":"s2","own":false,"role":"gap","text":"However, with only one confident multi-messenger detection currently available, modelling the diversity of signals expected from such a population requires improved theoretical understanding.","hedge":{"p":0.94,"label":"asserted"},"own_p":0.08,"main_claim_p":0.04,"quantitative":true,"quantitative_p":0.83,"role_probabilities":{"gap":0.99,"method":0.0,"result":0.0,"background":0.01,"limitation":0.0,"future_work":0.0,"contribution":0.0,"interpretation":0.0}},{"i":3,"p":0.93,"id":"s3","own":false,"role":"gap","text":"In particular, models which are quick to evaluate, and are calibrated with more detailed multi-physics simulations, are needed to design observational strategies for kilonovae detection, and to obtain rapid-response interpretations of new observations.","hedge":{"p":0.93,"label":"asserted"},"own_p":0.05,"main_claim_p":0.06,"quantitative":false,"quantitative_p":0.05,"role_probabilities":{"gap":0.93,"method":0.0,"result":0.0,"background":0.05,"limitation":0.0,"future_work":0.01,"contribution":0.01,"interpretation":0.0}},{"i":4,"p":0.89,"id":"s4","own":true,"role":"method","text":"We use grey-opacity models to construct populations of kilonovae, spanning ejecta parameters predicted by numerical simulations.","hedge":{"p":1.0,"label":"asserted"},"own_p":0.95,"main_claim_p":0.06,"quantitative":false,"quantitative_p":0.05,"role_probabilities":{"gap":0.0,"method":0.89,"result":0.0,"background":0.0,"limitation":0.0,"future_work":0.0,"contribution":0.11,"interpretation":0.0}},{"i":5,"p":0.88,"id":"s5","own":true,"role":"method","text":"Our modelling focuses on wavelengths relevant for upcoming optical surveys, such as the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST).","hedge":{"p":0.98,"label":"asserted"},"own_p":0.78,"main_claim_p":0.03,"quantitative":false,"quantitative_p":0.06,"role_probabilities":{"gap":0.0,"method":0.88,"result":0.0,"background":0.0,"limitation":0.01,"future_work":0.0,"contribution":0.11,"interpretation":0.0}},{"i":6,"p":0.99,"id":"s6","own":true,"role":"method","text":"In these simulations, we implement heating rates that are based on nuclear reaction network calculations.","hedge":{"p":1.0,"label":"asserted"},"own_p":0.89,"main_claim_p":0.02,"quantitative":false,"quantitative_p":0.03,"role_probabilities":{"gap":0.0,"method":0.99,"result":0.0,"background":0.0,"limitation":0.0,"future_work":0.0,"contribution":0.01,"interpretation":0.0}},{"i":7,"p":0.92,"id":"s7","own":true,"role":"method","text":"We create a Gaussian-process emulator for kilonova grey opacities, calibrated with detailed radiative transfer simulations.","hedge":{"p":1.0,"label":"asserted"},"own_p":0.95,"main_claim_p":0.08,"quantitative":false,"quantitative_p":0.04,"role_probabilities":{"gap":0.0,"method":0.92,"result":0.0,"background":0.0,"limitation":0.0,"future_work":0.0,"contribution":0.08,"interpretation":0.0}},{"i":8,"p":0.82,"id":"s8","own":true,"role":"method","text":"Using recent fits to numerical relativity simulations, we predict how the ejecta parameters from BNS mergers shape the population of kilonovae, accounting for the viewing-angle dependence.","hedge":{"p":0.98,"label":"asserted"},"own_p":0.89,"main_claim_p":0.16,"quantitative":false,"quantitative_p":0.05,"role_probabilities":{"gap":0.0,"method":0.82,"result":0.01,"background":0.0,"limitation":0.0,"future_work":0.0,"contribution":0.17,"interpretation":0.0}},{"i":9,"p":1.0,"id":"s9","own":true,"role":"result","text":"Our simulated population of binary neutron star (BNS) mergers produce peak i-band absolute magnitudes $-20 \\leq M_i \\leq -11$.","hedge":{"p":1.0,"label":"asserted"},"own_p":0.94,"main_claim_p":0.19,"quantitative":true,"quantitative_p":0.99,"role_probabilities":{"gap":0.0,"method":0.0,"result":1.0,"background":0.0,"limitation":0.0,"future_work":0.0,"contribution":0.0,"interpretation":0.0}},{"i":10,"p":0.98,"id":"s10","own":true,"role":"limitation","text":"A comparison with detailed radiative transfer calculations indicates that further improvements are needed to accurately reproduce spectral shapes over the full light curve evolution.","hedge":{"p":0.92,"label":"hedged_possibility"},"own_p":0.85,"main_claim_p":0.14,"quantitative":false,"quantitative_p":0.22,"role_probabilities":{"gap":0.0,"method":0.0,"result":0.0,"background":0.0,"limitation":0.98,"future_work":0.02,"contribution":0.0,"interpretation":0.0}}]},"compiled":{"main_claim":{"p":0.52,"text":"A comparison with detailed radiative transfer calculations indicates that further improvements are needed to accurately reproduce spectral shapes over the 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