{"paper":{"title":"LISA bright sirens as a tiebreaker among cosmologies in tension","arxiv_id":"2609.35317","primary_cat":"astro-ph.CO","submitted_at":"2026-09-28T14:49:00+00:00","version_compiled":"v1"},"notice":"Every quoted sentence is the authors' text from the arXiv listing abstract. Labels and probabilities are the outputs of classifier-1.13.0 on the question bank abstract-p1-20260923, exactly as returned. No sentence in this record was written by a language model.","schema":"pith.compiled-record/v0","status":"compiled","abstract":{"source":"arXiv listing abstract v1","sentences":[{"i":0,"p":0.98,"id":"s0","own":false,"role":"background","text":"Gravitational waves from massive black hole binaries detected by LISA will deliver luminosity distances without any astrophysical calibration, offering a probe of the expansion history independent of the cosmic distance ladder.","hedge":{"p":0.78,"label":"asserted"},"own_p":0.09,"main_claim_p":0.03,"quantitative":false,"quantitative_p":0.06,"role_probabilities":{"gap":0.0,"method":0.01,"result":0.0,"background":0.98,"limitation":0.0,"future_work":0.0,"contribution":0.01,"interpretation":0.0}},{"i":1,"p":0.91,"id":"s1","own":false,"role":"contribution","text":"Rather than asking how tightly LISA will constrain a single fiducial cosmology, we ask which of several mutually discrepant present-day cosmologies a future LISA dataset would render most self-consistent.","hedge":{"p":0.6,"label":"asserted"},"own_p":0.33,"main_claim_p":0.04,"quantitative":false,"quantitative_p":0.13,"role_probabilities":{"gap":0.05,"method":0.02,"result":0.0,"background":0.02,"limitation":0.0,"future_work":0.0,"contribution":0.91,"interpretation":0.0}},{"i":2,"p":0.98,"id":"s2","own":true,"role":"method","text":"We build mock catalogues of LISA bright sirens under three fiducial cosmologies drawn from datasets that participate in the current $H_0$ discrepancy (Planck 2018, Union3 and Pantheon+SH0ES), with a self-consistent error budget from instrumental noise, weak lensing and host peculiar velocities.","hedge":{"p":0.98,"label":"asserted"},"own_p":0.94,"main_claim_p":0.02,"quantitative":true,"quantitative_p":0.8,"role_probabilities":{"gap":0.0,"method":0.98,"result":0.0,"background":0.0,"limitation":0.0,"future_work":0.0,"contribution":0.02,"interpretation":0.0}},{"i":3,"p":0.97,"id":"s3","own":true,"role":"method","text":"We compare the posterior from the simulated LISA data alone with that of a real-data combination of Type Ia supernovae, DESI baryon acoustic oscillations, cosmic chronometers and the compressed Planck 2018 CMB, and quantify their internal tension in the $(H_0,\\Omega_m)$ plane, crossing each fiducial with three SN Ia compilations.","hedge":{"p":0.97,"label":"asserted"},"own_p":0.93,"main_claim_p":0.03,"quantitative":false,"quantitative_p":0.38,"role_probabilities":{"gap":0.0,"method":0.97,"result":0.0,"background":0.0,"limitation":0.0,"future_work":0.0,"contribution":0.03,"interpretation":0.0}},{"i":4,"p":1.0,"id":"s4","own":true,"role":"result","text":"The fiducial drives the tension, from $2.08\\sigma$ to well beyond $5\\sigma$, while the supernova compilation changes it by at most $1.2\\sigma$.","hedge":{"p":1.0,"label":"asserted"},"own_p":0.92,"main_claim_p":0.1,"quantitative":true,"quantitative_p":0.99,"role_probabilities":{"gap":0.0,"method":0.0,"result":1.0,"background":0.0,"limitation":0.0,"future_work":0.0,"contribution":0.0,"interpretation":0.0}},{"i":5,"p":1.0,"id":"s5","own":true,"role":"result","text":"The discriminating power is strongly asymmetric: a Pantheon+SH0ES universe is inconsistent with every background we test, at a significance far in excess of $5\\sigma$ and still at $3$-$5\\sigma$ for the $10$-$20$ events expected from recent population models, whereas the Planck 2018 and Union3 fiducials, which differ by only $0.24$ km/s/Mpc in $H_0$, cannot be separated by any catalogue 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