{"paper":{"title":"The Impact of High-Mass Clusters on the Binary Black Hole Merger Rate over Cosmic Time","arxiv_id":"2610.20698","primary_cat":"astro-ph.GA","submitted_at":"2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00","version_compiled":"v1"},"notice":"Every quoted sentence is the authors' text from the arXiv listing abstract. Labels and probabilities are the outputs of classifier-1.13.0 on the question bank abstract-p1-20260923, exactly as returned. No sentence in this record was written by a language model.","schema":"pith.compiled-record/v0","status":"compiled","abstract":{"source":"arXiv listing abstract v1","sentences":[{"i":0,"p":0.84,"id":"s0","own":true,"role":"contribution","text":"We present a cosmological calculation of the binary black hole merger rate from dense star clusters, using a $\\texttt{Cluster Monte Carlo}$ ($\\texttt{CMC}$) model grid spanning the full observed parameter space of cluster mass, metallicity, and virial radius.","hedge":{"p":0.99,"label":"asserted"},"own_p":0.96,"main_claim_p":0.05,"quantitative":false,"quantitative_p":0.11,"role_probabilities":{"gap":0.0,"method":0.16,"result":0.0,"background":0.0,"limitation":0.0,"future_work":0.0,"contribution":0.84,"interpretation":0.0}},{"i":1,"p":0.82,"id":"s1","own":true,"role":"contribution","text":"For the first time, we incorporate $N=10^{7}$-particle $\\texttt{CMC}$ models into this calculation, including a new solar-metallicity model, extending the $\\texttt{CMC Cluster Catalog}$ to the most massive clusters observed in the local Universe.","hedge":{"p":1.0,"label":"asserted"},"own_p":0.96,"main_claim_p":0.04,"quantitative":true,"quantitative_p":0.96,"role_probabilities":{"gap":0.0,"method":0.18,"result":0.0,"background":0.0,"limitation":0.0,"future_work":0.0,"contribution":0.82,"interpretation":0.0}},{"i":2,"p":1.0,"id":"s2","own":true,"role":"result","text":"Using an analytic cluster formation model which convolves the cluster formation rate with delay-time distributions from our model suite, we find that the local cluster BBH merger rate is dominated by low-mass ($M_1 \\lesssim 20\\,M_\\odot$) mergers originating from recently formed, high-metallicity clusters.","hedge":{"p":1.0,"label":"asserted"},"own_p":0.97,"main_claim_p":0.47,"quantitative":true,"quantitative_p":0.96,"role_probabilities":{"gap":0.0,"method":0.0,"result":1.0,"background":0.0,"limitation":0.0,"future_work":0.0,"contribution":0.0,"interpretation":0.0}},{"i":3,"p":0.91,"id":"s3","own":true,"role":"result","text":"While high-mass clusters are the primary sites of hierarchical (second-generation and higher) mergers, their contribution to the overall merger rate is suppressed by the exponential cutoff of the cluster initial mass function.","hedge":{"p":1.0,"label":"asserted"},"own_p":0.85,"main_claim_p":0.2,"quantitative":false,"quantitative_p":0.33,"role_probabilities":{"gap":0.0,"method":0.0,"result":0.91,"background":0.0,"limitation":0.0,"future_work":0.0,"contribution":0.0,"interpretation":0.09}},{"i":4,"p":0.99,"id":"s4","own":true,"role":"interpretation","text":"The hierarchical merger rate is therefore highly sensitive to the exact value of the Schechter mass, $M_S$, suggesting that gravitational wave constraints on the hierarchical merger fraction can independently constrain the high-mass end of the cluster initial mass function.","hedge":{"p":0.84,"label":"hedged_possibility"},"own_p":0.76,"main_claim_p":0.23,"quantitative":false,"quantitative_p":0.06,"role_probabilities":{"gap":0.0,"method":0.0,"result":0.01,"background":0.0,"limitation":0.0,"future_work":0.0,"contribution":0.0,"interpretation":0.99}},{"i":5,"p":0.98,"id":"s5","own":true,"role":"result","text":"Our cluster formation model reproduces the observed present-day GC number density without fine tuning, and we find $M_S = 10^7\\,M_\\odot$ provides the best match to the observed Virgo GC mass distribution.","hedge":{"p":1.0,"label":"asserted"},"own_p":0.96,"main_claim_p":0.12,"quantitative":true,"quantitative_p":0.97,"role_probabilities":{"gap":0.0,"method":0.01,"result":0.98,"background":0.0,"limitation":0.0,"future_work":0.0,"contribution":0.01,"interpretation":0.0}},{"i":6,"p":1.0,"id":"s6","own":true,"role":"result","text":"For this value, $27\\%$ of local dynamical mergers are hierarchical, compared to $18\\%$ for the canonical value of $M_S = 10^{6.26}\\,M_\\odot$.","hedge":{"p":1.0,"label":"asserted"},"own_p":0.95,"main_claim_p":0.11,"quantitative":true,"quantitative_p":0.99,"role_probabilities":{"gap":0.0,"method":0.0,"result":1.0,"background":0.0,"limitation":0.0,"future_work":0.0,"contribution":0.0,"interpretation":0.0}},{"i":7,"p":0.66,"id":"s7","own":true,"role":"contribution","text":"Our merger weights, which we make publicly available, can be used for direct comparison with LVK distributions and other formation models.","hedge":{"p":0.91,"label":"asserted"},"own_p":0.87,"main_claim_p":0.03,"quantitative":false,"quantitative_p":0.04,"role_probabilities":{"gap":0.0,"method":0.04,"result":0.0,"background":0.0,"limitation":0.0,"future_work":0.3,"contribution":0.66,"interpretation":0.0}}]},"compiled":{"main_claim":{"p":0.63,"text":"Using an analytic cluster formation model which convolves the cluster formation rate with delay-time distributions from our model suite, we find that the local cluster BBH merger rate is dominated by low-mass ($M_1 \\lesssim 20\\,M_\\odot$) mergers originating from recently formed, high-metallicity clusters.","location":"abstract s2","hedge_strength":{"p":1.0,"label":"asserted"}},"provenance":{"route":{"via":"TypeSafe API","model":"classifier-1.13.0","endpoint":"https://api.typesafe.ai/v1/systemone","provider":"TypeSafe"},"packing":"one request per paper","requests":1,"input_tokens":6719,"cost_usd_reported":0.0},"compiled_at":"2026-10-16","bank_version":"abstract-p1-20260923","model_version":"classifier-1.13.0","abstract_states":{"claims_first":0.86,"states_limitation":0.48,"human_participants":0.01,"controlled_comparison":0.28,"randomized_assignment":0.01,"states_quantitative_result":0.99,"compares_with_prior_results":0.88,"mentions_code_or_data_availability":0.95},"evidential_basis":{"p":1.0,"value":"simulation or computation","probabilities":{"argument":0.0,"literature":0.0,"proof_or_derivation":0.0,"analysis_of_existing_data":0.0,"observation_or_experiment":0.0,"simulation_or_computation":1.0}},"contribution_type":{"p":0.96,"value":"simulation study","probabilities":{"review":0.0,"method_or_tool":0.0,"empirical_study":0.0,"simulation_study":0.96,"theoretical_result":0.04,"dataset_or_benchmark":0.0,"position_or_commentary":0.0}},"contribution_statement":{"p":1.0,"text":"For the first time, we incorporate $N=10^{7}$-particle $\\texttt{CMC}$ models into this calculation, including a new solar-metallicity model, extending the $\\texttt{CMC Cluster Catalog}$ to the most massive clusters observed in the local Universe.","location":"abstract s1"}},"coverage":{"tier":"abstract","levels_run":["P abstract"],"not_examined":["full text","figures and tables","references and citing sentences","relations to other papers"],"sources_read":["arXiv listing abstract v1"],"levels_not_run":["S sections","T body sentences","C citations","R cross-paper relations"],"sentences_examined":8,"sentences_in_abstract":8},"measured_accuracy":{"url":"https://pith.science/accuracy","measured_on":"2026-10-02","method":"two independent model families labelled a fresh random sample blind; the figure is how often the published label matches their consensus","sentence_role_agreement":0.92,"main_claim_agreement":0.908,"typed_citation_agreement":0.933,"typed_citation_agreement_95_interval":[0.917,0.945],"review_comments_accurate":0.758,"review_comments_accurate_95_interval":[0.684,0.82],"review_caught_admitted_error_found_or_related":0.448}}