{"id":"76e06fe7-ddfa-49fa-9cae-e7e3d8f88615","arxiv_id":"2412.08527","paper_version":1,"verdict":"CONDITIONAL","confidence":"MODERATE","novelty_score":7.0,"correctness_risk":"medium","formal_verification":"none","parameter_count":8,"one_line_summary":"This paper reports three newly confirmed transiting warm Jupiters, two outer giant companions, a transit timing variation detection, and the reclassification of one TESS candidate as a false positive.","lead":"Astronomers used TESS and SOPHIE data to confirm three new giant planets orbiting other stars, plus two more distant giant companions in two of those systems. The finds add rare long-period planets, including one of the most lopsided orbits known, useful for testing how giant planets form and migrate.","discovery_kind":"extension","skeptic_critique":{"model":"deepseek-v4-flash","headline":"TOI-2295b's radius in the abstract's 1.0-1.5 RJ range is set by an imposed 3 RJ cap, not by the light curve; the abstract overstates radius precision.","rationale":"The central claim of the paper is the existence and basic characterization of three transiting warm Jupiters. The RV detections for TOI-2295b, TOI-2537b, and TOI-5110b are strong, and the masses and orbital periods are well constrained. The weak point in the claimed property set is the radius: TOI-2537b (1.004+/-0.059 RJ) and TOI-5110b (1.069+/-0.054 RJ) have well-measured radii from non-grazing transits, but TOI-2295b's radius is essentially unconstrained by the light curve and is pulled down by a Gaussian prior that caps RP/R* near the 3 RJ scale. The unconstrained fit's median of 7.6 RJ shows how little the data alone say about the upper end. The abstract's phrase 'radii ranging from 1.0 to 1.5 RJ' therefore overstates the precision for one of the three headline planets, although the paper's own body and even the longer abstract contain the caveat that the radius is uncertain due to grazing geometry. I considered alternative concerns: TOI-2537c's orbital period (1920 +230/-140 d) exceeds the RV baseline, but the two-Keplerian model is overwhelmingly preferred (Delta ln Z = 981 versus no-planet), so the companion's existence is secure; the TTV claim rests on only three transits, but the deviations are individually significant and the dynamical interpretation is explicitly preliminary; TOI-5110b's extreme eccentricity could in principle be an alias, but the RV sampling and bisector checks do not support that. None of these threatens the central claim as directly as the radius overstatement. The reader's weakest_assumption identified exactly this issue, and the reader's CONDITIONAL verdict already accounts for it. No change to the verdict is warranted, though the abstract should ideally be rephrased to flag that TOI-2295b's radius is a prior-bounded lower-limit estimate rather than a measured value in the 1.0-1.5 RJ range.","tokens_in":68431,"tokens_out":8272,"duration_ms":83317,"concrete_test":"Re-run the TOI-2295 joint fit in EXOFASTv2 with the RP/R* Gaussian prior removed and a uniform prior on RP/R* over [0, 1] (or a cap at 5 RJ), using the same TESS light curves and SOPHIE RVs; report the 68% and 95% credible intervals for RP. If the upper 68% bound exceeds roughly 2.3 RJ, or if substantial posterior mass lies above 3 RJ, the abstract's 1.0-1.5 RJ radius range is not supported by the data alone and should be recast as a lower limit combined with a physical cap.","verdict_should_be":"UNCHANGED","load_bearing_attack":"The abstract's radius range 1.0-1.5 RJ for the three warm Jupiters is not uniformly supported by the data. For TOI-2295b, the grazing transit (impact parameter b = 1.056) leaves RP/R* and RP nearly degenerate, and the unconstrained EXOFASTv2 fit returns RP = 7.6+6.2-4.5 RJ (Sect. 4.2.1.2). The paper then imposes a Gaussian prior on RP/R* (Table D.2: N[0.03, 0.21]), whose width effectively caps RP at roughly 3 RJ for the adopted stellar radius R* = 1.459 Rsun, justified by the absence of a secondary eclipse. The resulting RP = 1.47+0.85-0.53 RJ is therefore a prior-bounded estimate rather than a light-curve measurement, and its 68% interval extends to 2.32 RJ, outside the abstract's quoted range. The cap is physically motivated (a 0.875 MJ planet with a 7.6 RJ radius would be implausibly diffuse), and the paper does candidly note the radius is uncertain, but the abstract's opening characterization presents the 1.0-1.5 RJ range without that caveat. If the cap were placed at, say, 5 RJ instead, the quoted radius would shift upward. The existence and mass of TOI-2295b remain secure (K = 54.7 +/- 1.3 m/s; Delta ln Z = 62.4 for two-Keplerian versus no-planet), so this concern is about the precision and honesty of the radius claim, not about the discovery itself.","agreement_with_reader":"agree"},"referee_report":{"model":"deepseek-v4-flash","summary":"This manuscript reports the characterization of seven transiting systems observed with TESS photometry, SOPHIE radial velocities, and high-spatial-resolution imaging. Three systems (TOI-2295, TOI-2537, TOI-5110) are presented as newly discovered warm Jupiters; TOI-2295 and TOI-2537 each host an additional outer giant companion. The paper also reports independent SOPHIE RV detections of the previously known planets TOI-1836b and TOI-5076b, re-examines the candidate TOI-4081.01 with caution, and identifies TOI-4168.01 as a false positive caused by an eclipsing binary. The analysis includes Bayesian model comparisons, EXOFASTv2 joint fits, bisector and mask tests, speckle imaging, TTV modeling for TOI-2537b, and dynamical stability checks.","tokens_in":68864,"tokens_out":4072,"duration_ms":43441,"significance":"If the main results hold, the paper adds three long-period transiting warm Jupiters and two outer giant companions to a relatively sparse population, including TOI-5110b, one of the most eccentric transiting planets known, and TOI-2537b, a temperate Jupiter useful as a low-irradiation control for radius-inflation models. The paper is thorough in its false-positive vetting, includes multi-instrument RV data, reports a significant TTV detection for TOI-2537b with a plausible dynamical explanation, and provides a clean identification of a false positive in TOI-4168.01. The central RV detections for the newly discovered planets are statistically strong, and the imaging and bisector analyses support their planetary nature.","major_comments":[{"comment":"The abstract's statement that TOI-2295b, TOI-2537b, and TOI-5110b have radii ranging from 1.0 to 1.5 RJ is not uniformly supported by the data. For TOI-2295b, the quoted radius of 1.47+0.85-0.53 RJ (Table 7) is obtained by imposing a Gaussian prior on RP/R* (Table D.2: N[0.03, 0.21]) that effectively caps the radius near 3 RJ; the unconstrained EXOFASTv2 fit returns a stellar-like radius of 7.6+6.2-4.5 RJ (Sect. 4.2.1.2). The 68% interval of the constrained radius extends to 2.32 RJ, outside the abstract's 1.0-1.5 RJ range. The planet's existence and mass are robust, but the abstract overstates the precision of the radius determination and should be revised to present the radius as poorly constrained or prior-limited.","section":"Abstract, Sect. 4.2.1.2, Tables 7 and D.2"},{"comment":"The claim that TOI-5076b is independently detected in SOPHIE RVs is overstated. The unconstrained one-Keplerian model did not converge, and the informed model with Gaussian priors centered on the QLP ephemeris gives only Delta ln Z = 3.4 over the no-planet model (Table 6), with K = 8.2 +/- 2.6 m/s, a ~3 sigma detection. This is acknowledged in the text as below the commonly accepted detection threshold, and the CCF shows a broad secondary component (Fig. 10). The abstract should either weaken the 'independently detected' phrasing for TOI-5076b or explicitly quantify the modest significance of the SOPHIE-only detection.","section":"Sect. 4.2.4.1, Table 6"},{"comment":"For TOI-1836b, the bisector dispersion of 22 m/s is larger than the RV residual dispersion (12.3 m/s) and is comparable to the RV semi-amplitude K = 8 +/- 2 m/s. Although the lack of bisector-RV correlation and the TRICERATOPS validation mitigate the concern, the paper should explicitly address whether the 4-sigma RV detection could be affected by a varying CCF or an unresolved blended component, especially given the nearby star reported by Chontos et al. (2024) and the fact that the candidate radius lies at the 8 R_Earth validation boundary.","section":"Sect. 4.2.5.1"}],"minor_comments":[{"comment":"The header of Table E.1 contains 'TOI-2237' for what should be TOI-2537, and 'FEEROS' appears to be a typo for FEROS.","section":"Appendix E, Table E.1"},{"comment":"The observing log lists 'Janurary 2021' for HARPS; the spelling should be corrected.","section":"Table 2"},{"comment":"The sentence describing the average exposure times and S/N would benefit from a consistent statement of whether the quoted S/N is per pixel or per resolution element, as the definitions differ for FEROS.","section":"Sect. 2.2"},{"comment":"The stellar parameters for TOI-4168 are incomplete in the main table (e.g., logg and mass are missing without a reference to Table 9); adding a footnote pointing to Sect. 4.4.2 and Table 9 would improve readability.","section":"Table 5"},{"comment":"The abstract describes TOI-5110b's eccentricity as 0.75 +/- 0.03, while Table 7 gives 0.745+0.030-0.027; these are consistent, but the abstract could cite the precise value to avoid apparent round-off discrepancies.","section":"Abstract and Sect. 1"}],"recommendation":"major_revision","confidential_remarks":"The paper is a solid multi-system characterization paper with several genuinely new and well-vetted warm Jupiters. The main issue is that the abstract overstates the precision of TOI-2295b's radius, which is prior-limited rather than measured from the light curve, and also overstates the independence of the TOI-5076b SOPHIE detection. Both issues are fixable with revised wording and clearer quantification. The central discoveries for TOI-2537b, TOI-5110b, and the outer companions appear robust, and the false-positive identification of TOI-4168.01 is convincing. With revision, the paper should be acceptable."},"author_rebuttal":null,"desk_editor":{"model":"deepseek-v4-flash","letter":"Three new warm Jupiters here, plus two outer giants and a secure false-positive reclassification. The RV evidence for the new systems is solid – Delta ln Z between 16 and 981 – and the false-positive screening is about as thorough as it gets. The paper is also unusually candid about its weak spots: the TOI-2295b radius is flagged as uncertain, TOI-4081 stays a candidate, and the TOI-1836/5076 detections rest on marginal SOPHIE data.\n\nThe main thing to know: the abstract's radius range for the three warm Jupiters is not uniform. For TOI-2295b, the unconstrained fit returns a stellar-like radius (7.6+6.2-4.5 RJ), and the quoted 1.47+0.85-0.53 RJ comes from imposing a Gaussian prior on RP/R* informed by the SPOC transit depth, effectively capped at 3 RJ. The cap is physically motivated and the paper says the radius is uncertain, but the abstract presents 1.0-1.5 RJ as if it were a measurement. That overstates precision for that one planet. The mass (0.875±0.04 MJ) and the detection itself are not affected.\n\nThe other soft spot is that the SOPHIE detections of TOI-5076b and TOI-1836b are weak (about 3 and 4 sigma), and both have contaminated CCFs or bisector variations comparable to the signal. The paper acknowledges this and leans on TRICERATOPS plus independent published detections, which is fair. The TTV claim for TOI-2537b rests on only three transits, but the deviations are 4-8 sigma and the dynamical analysis shows the outer planet can produce them; that's reasonable as a preliminary claim.\n\nNo fitting code was released, so the MCMC details can't be independently rerun, but the RV tables and priors are in the appendices, which is more than many papers do. The citation pattern looks appropriate; the relevant warm Jupiter literature is there.\n\nWho this is for: exoplanet demographers, warm Jupiter formation people, and follow-up observers. It's a solid discovery paper, not a methodological advance. With a fix to the abstract (either remove TOI-2295b's radius from the headline range or add a caveat), it's a clean accept. As is, I'd send it to review and ask for that revision; the discovery content deserves referee time.","headline":"Solid warm Jupiter discovery paper undermined slightly by an abstract that overstates TOI-2295b's radius precision; otherwise a competent, honest characterization.","tokens_in":69789,"tokens_out":4217,"would_cite":true,"duration_ms":40407,"reading_group":"maybe","serious_thinker":"yes","would_accept_peer_review":true},"rs_alignment":null,"lean_confirmation":null,"pith_extraction":{"msc":[],"pacs":[],"model":"deepseek-v4-flash","headline":"Three new transiting warm Jupiters are characterized, two with massive outer companions, and one TESS candidate is shown to be an eclipsing binary.","keywords":["warm Jupiters","transiting exoplanets","radial velocity follow-up","TESS","transit timing variations","eccentric planets","false positive identification"],"falsifier":"Measure a future TOI-2295b transit with a space telescope at higher signal-to-noise than TESS and fit the transit depth without the SPOC-informed radius prior; if the depth implies a radius far outside the 1.0-1.5 Jupiter-radius range, the prior-driven radius claim is refuted.","tokens_in":68203,"feed_emoji":"🪐","tokens_out":9217,"duration_ms":87158,"temperature":0.7,"pith_summary":"This paper reports the discovery and characterization of three new transiting warm Jupiters—TOI-2295b, TOI-2537b, and TOI-5110b—with orbital periods between 30 and 94 days, masses between 0.9 and 2.9 Jupiter masses, and radii near 1.0 to 1.5 Jupiter radii. It also refines the parameters of two known warm Jupiters, TOI-1836b and TOI-5076b, and shows that the TESS candidate TOI-4168.01 is not a planet but an eclipsing binary whose signal appears anti-phased with the transit ephemeris. The systems matter because long-period warm Jupiters are rare and their properties, including eccentricity and temperature, carry information about how giant planets form and migrate.","feed_headline":"Three warm Jupiters join the long-period planet census","feed_subtitle":"Two new systems carry massive outer companions; one planet's orbit is among the most eccentric known.","key_machinery":"The analysis runs on combined TESS photometry and SOPHIE radial velocities, with HARPS and FEROS data for TOI-2537, fitted jointly by the EXOFASTv2 package, a joint photometry-and-radial-velocity modeling tool that solves stellar, Keplerian, and transit parameters together. Two pieces of machinery do the heavy lifting for the headline results: a Gaussian prior on the planet-to-star radius ratio for TOI-2295b, which converts the grazing transit's weakly constrained stellar-like radius into a planetary radius capped at 3 Jupiter radii, and a transit-timing fit within the same joint model that absorbs the roughly 12-minute transit timing variations seen in TOI-2537b. Companion mass limits come from Gaia astrometry through the GaiaPMEX tool, and the false-positive checks use bisector spans, multiple spectral masks, and the TRICERATOPS statistical validation package.","core_discovery":"The paper's central claim is that three previously unconfirmed TESS signals are real transiting giant planets: TOI-2295b (period 30.033302 days, mass 0.875 Jupiter masses, grazing impact parameter 1.056), TOI-2537b (period 94.1022 days, mass 1.307 Jupiter masses, radius 1.004 Jupiter radii, equilibrium temperature 307 K), and TOI-5110b (period 30.158577 days, mass 2.90 Jupiter masses, radius 1.069 Jupiter radii, eccentricity 0.745). In two of the systems the radial velocities reveal additional outer giant companions, TOI-2295c and TOI-2537c, with minimum masses of 5.61 and 7.23 Jupiter masses and periods of 966.5 and about 1920 days. The paper further identifies significant transit timing variations for TOI-2537b, consistent with perturbation by its outer companion, and classifies TOI-4168.01 as a firm false positive caused by a stellar secondary eclipse. For TOI-4081.01 the radial-velocity signal is detected but a blended eclipsing binary cannot be excluded, so its planetary nature is left open.","pith_inferences":["A future high-cadence space observation of a TOI-2295b transit that resolves the grazing ingress and egress would directly test the prior-dependent radius claim.","With additional TESS or CHEOPS transits over the next few years, the roughly 12-minute transit timing variations of TOI-2537b could yield a dynamical measurement of TOI-2537c's true mass, going beyond the radial-velocity minimum mass.","If TOI-5110b is confirmed as a proto-hot Jupiter, a targeted search for a hidden companion with radial-velocity precision below 10 m/s could distinguish high-eccentricity migration from in-situ eccentricity excitation.","The clear anti-phased radial-velocity signature of TOI-4168.01 suggests that other single-transit TESS candidates with large radial-velocity amplitudes should be checked for eclipsing-binary phase alignment before being confirmed as planets."],"forward_implications":["TOI-2537b is a temperate Jupiter at 307 ± 15 K and can serve as a low-irradiation control for models of hot Jupiter radius inflation.","TOI-5110b's eccentricity of 0.745, with a final circular-orbit semi-major axis of about 0.096 AU, makes it a candidate proto-hot Jupiter if high-eccentricity migration is operating.","TOI-1836b has a transmission spectroscopy metric of 103.5, above the recommended threshold, and falls in the sub-Saturn valley, making it a strong atmospheric-characterization target.","The grazing transit of TOI-2295b makes its light-curve shape highly sensitive to inclination changes, providing a probe of dynamical interactions with the outer planet TOI-2295c.","The detected transit timing variations in TOI-2537b are consistent with gravitational perturbation by TOI-2537c, and additional transits should refine the system's dynamical model."],"supporting_citations":[{"why":"Supplies the EXOFASTv2 joint modelling machinery used to fit photometry, radial velocities, and transit timing variations for all systems.","marker":"Eastman et al. 2019"},{"why":"Supplies the juliet/radvel Keplerian models and Bayesian model comparison used for the radial-velocity-only signal detections.","marker":"Espinoza et al. 2019"},{"why":"Provides the ceres pipeline used to extract the HARPS and FEROS radial velocities for TOI-2537.","marker":"Brahm et al. 2017"},{"why":"Provides the TRICERATOPS statistical validation that supports the planetary interpretation of TOI-5076.01 and TOI-1836.01.","marker":"Giacalone et al. 2020"},{"why":"Provides the GaiaPMEX tool used with Gaia DR3 RUWE values to place upper limits on the masses of the outer planets TOI-2295c and TOI-2537c.","marker":"Kiefer et al. 2024"},{"why":"Supplies the contrast criterion used to show that nearby stars are too faint to mimic the observed transit depths.","marker":"Vanderburg et al. 2019"},{"why":"Provides the eccentric eclipsing-binary scenario used to identify TOI-4168.01 as a false positive.","marker":"Santerne et al. 2012"},{"why":"Supplies Gaia DR3 parallaxes, photometry, and RUWE values that feed the stellar parameter estimates and companion-mass limits.","marker":"Gaia Collaboration et al. 2021"}],"fun_headline_variants":["Three warm Jupiters join census, one highly eccentric","New warm Jupiters: two systems harbor outer giant planets","Warm Jupiter trio: grazing transit, TTVs, and eccentric orbit","TESS and SOPHIE confirm three more transiting giants"],"cache_read_input_tokens":3200,"weakest_assumption_plain":"The weakest load-bearing assumption is that TOI-2295b's radius is capped by a prior at about three Jupiter radii; the grazing transit alone would allow a stellar-like radius, so the quoted radius rests on that prior even though the planet's existence and mass are secure.","fun_headline_variants_meta":{"raw":{"variants":["Three warm Jupiters join census, one highly eccentric","New warm Jupiters: two systems harbor outer giant planets","Warm Jupiter trio: grazing transit, TTVs, and eccentric orbit","TESS and SOPHIE confirm three more transiting giants"]},"model":"deepseek-v4-flash","effort":"low","cost_usd":0.000598,"raw_usage":{"total_tokens":2968,"prompt_tokens":1289,"completion_tokens":1679,"prompt_tokens_details":{"cached_tokens":384},"prompt_cache_hit_tokens":384,"prompt_cache_miss_tokens":905,"completion_tokens_details":{"reasoning_tokens":1606}},"tokens_in":905,"tokens_out":1679,"duration_ms":17100,"temperature":1.0,"reasoning_tokens":1606,"cache_read_input_tokens":384,"cache_creation_input_tokens":0},"cache_creation_input_tokens":0},"created_at":"2026-08-11T17:44:42.576074+00:00","model_set":{"reader":"deepseek-v4-flash"},"falsifier":"Measure a future TOI-2295b transit with a space telescope at higher signal-to-noise than TESS and fit the transit depth without the SPOC-informed radius prior; if the depth implies a radius far outside the 1.0-1.5 Jupiter-radius range, the prior-driven radius claim is refuted.","supporting_citations":[{"cited_title":"X., Rodriguez , J","cited_arxiv_id":null,"evidence_quote":"Supplies the contrast criterion used to show that nearby stars are too faint to mimic the observed transit depths."},{"cited_title":"2012, Astronomy & Astrophysics, 545, A76","cited_arxiv_id":null,"evidence_quote":"Provides the eccentric eclipsing-binary scenario used to identify TOI-4168.01 as a false positive."}],"review_version":1}