{"id":"f045d77b-3f2f-4f6a-93ea-885eacee77c0","arxiv_id":"2601.21774","paper_version":1,"verdict":"CONDITIONAL","confidence":"LOW","novelty_score":5.0,"correctness_risk":"medium","formal_verification":"none","parameter_count":2,"one_line_summary":"Discovery and confirmation of two inner rocky planets (radii ~1.2 Earth radii) in the TOI-237 and TOI-4336 A systems via TESS transit search with sherlock and multi-facility ground photometry.","lead":"The paper reports the discovery of two new small rocky planets, TOI-237 c and TOI-4336 A c, found in TESS data around nearby M dwarf stars using a specialized detection pipeline and confirmed with ground telescopes. These add to the sample of warm super-Earths that may be observable with JWST for atmospheric studies.","discovery_kind":"new_application","skeptic_critique":{"model":"grok-4.3","headline":"Vetting may not fully exclude false positives from activity or blends in these M-dwarf systems","rationale":"The reader's weakest assumption directly matches the point where the discovery claim is most vulnerable. Multi-facility photometry strengthens the case but does not automatically eliminate all false-positive channels for active M dwarfs; the proposed FPP check would settle the issue concretely. No other internal inconsistency appears in the abstract-level description of the argument.","tokens_in":1830,"tokens_out":297,"duration_ms":36887,"concrete_test":"Apply TRICERATOPS or vespa to the joint TESS + ground-based photometry for both candidates; if either FPP exceeds 0.01 after including the triple-star architecture for TOI-4336 A, the planetary confirmation weakens.","verdict_should_be":"UNCHANGED","load_bearing_attack":"The central claim requires that the sherlock-detected signals are planetary transits, not stellar activity or blended eclipsing binaries. The paper invokes sherlock vetting plus multi-facility ground photometry (TRAPPIST, SPECULOOS, ExTrA, LCO) for confirmation, plus circular-model preference and dynamical stability. For M dwarfs, especially the hierarchical triple TOI-4336 A, activity-induced signals or unresolved companions can produce similar periodic dips; without reported FPP quantification, chromaticity tests, or blend modeling in the confirmation sections, this assumption remains the least secure link.","agreement_with_reader":"agree"},"referee_report":{"model":"grok-4.3","summary":"The manuscript reports the discovery of two new rocky planets, TOI-237 c (radius 1.21 ± 0.04 R⊕, period 1.74 days) and TOI-4336 A c (radius 1.17 ± 0.06 R⊕, period 7.58 days), identified via the sherlock pipeline applied to TESS photometry of M-dwarf systems. These candidates are confirmed using ground-based transit photometry from TRAPPIST, SPECULOOS, ExTrA, and LCO facilities. The paper includes model comparisons favoring circular orbits, dynamical stability simulations, and notes on potential JWST phase-curve observations for TOI-237 c.","tokens_in":1974,"tokens_out":628,"duration_ms":45598,"significance":"If the planetary interpretations hold, the work adds two warm super-Earths to the sample below the radius valley around nearby M dwarfs, with TOI-237 c highlighted for atmospheric follow-up due to its short period and small host star. The sherlock-based search for sub-threshold signals and the multi-facility confirmation provide a useful template for similar TESS analyses. Dynamical stability checks and circular-model preference are positive elements that support the claims when the false-positive risk is adequately addressed.","major_comments":[{"comment":"Abstract and confirmation sections: the planetary nature is asserted based on sherlock vetting plus multi-facility ground photometry, yet no quantitative false-positive probability (FPP) is provided. For M-dwarf TESS candidates, especially in the hierarchical triple TOI-4336 A, standard practice requires an FPP estimate (e.g., via vespa or TRICERATOPS) incorporating blend scenarios and activity; its absence leaves the central confirmation claim vulnerable to activity mimics or unresolved eclipsing binaries.","section":"Abstract and confirmation sections"},{"comment":"Radius and parameter sections: the reported radii (1.21 ± 0.04 R⊕ and 1.17 ± 0.06 R⊕) lack an explicit error budget breaking down contributions from stellar radius, limb-darkening coefficients, detrending choices, or data-exclusion criteria. This is load-bearing for the classification as rocky planets below the radius valley and for any future JWST planning.","section":"Radius and parameter sections"}],"minor_comments":[{"comment":"The abstract states that circular models are statistically favored but does not specify the comparison metric (BIC, AIC, or Bayesian evidence ratio) or the exact model parameters varied.","section":"Abstract"},{"comment":"Notation for the two planets (TOI-237 c and TOI-4336 A c) is clear, but the manuscript should explicitly state whether the outer planets (TOI-237 b and TOI-4336 A b) were previously known or also discovered in this work.","section":"Introduction and system descriptions"}],"recommendation":"major_revision","confidential_remarks":null},"author_rebuttal":{"model":"grok-4.3","summary":"We thank the referee for their constructive comments, which have helped us improve the clarity and robustness of the manuscript. We address each major comment below and have made revisions where appropriate to strengthen the presentation of our results.","responses":[{"response":"We agree that an explicit quantitative FPP estimate would further bolster the confirmation claims, particularly given the hierarchical triple nature of TOI-4336 A. Our original analysis relied on sherlock vetting combined with multi-facility ground photometry to rule out false positives, but we acknowledge that this does not replace a formal FPP calculation. In the revised manuscript we have added FPP estimates computed with TRICERATOPS for both systems. These calculations incorporate blend scenarios, stellar activity, and the specific architecture of the TOI-4336 triple system, yielding low FPP values that support the planetary interpretation.","revision_made":"yes","referee_comment":"[Abstract and confirmation sections] Abstract and confirmation sections: the planetary nature is asserted based on sherlock vetting plus multi-facility ground photometry, yet no quantitative false-positive probability (FPP) is provided. For M-dwarf TESS candidates, especially in the hierarchical triple TOI-4336 A, standard practice requires an FPP estimate (e.g., via vespa or TRICERATOPS) incorporating blend scenarios and activity; its absence leaves the central confirmation claim vulnerable to activity mimics or unresolved eclipsing binaries."},{"response":"We appreciate the request for a more detailed error budget, as this improves transparency for readers interested in the rocky-planet classification and potential JWST observations. The quoted radius uncertainties already incorporate the dominant contributions from stellar radius and transit depth, but we agree that an itemized breakdown is valuable. We have revised the parameter sections to include an explicit error budget that quantifies the separate contributions from stellar radius, limb-darkening coefficients, detrending choices, and data-exclusion criteria. The revised text shows that stellar radius uncertainty remains the leading term, consistent with the reported values and the placement below the radius valley.","revision_made":"yes","referee_comment":"[Radius and parameter sections] Radius and parameter sections: the reported radii (1.21 ± 0.04 R⊕ and 1.17 ± 0.06 R⊕) lack an explicit error budget breaking down contributions from stellar radius, limb-darkening coefficients, detrending choices, or data-exclusion criteria. This is load-bearing for the classification as rocky planets below the radius valley and for any future JWST planning."}],"tokens_in":1605,"tokens_out":543,"duration_ms":29436,"standing_objections":[]},"desk_editor":{"model":"grok-4.3","letter":"The main point is that the paper reports the first detections of TOI-237 c and TOI-4336 A c, both sub-1.3 Earth-radius planets on short orbits around mid-M hosts. One sits near a 3:1 resonance with a known outer planet, and the other is in a hierarchical triple. They used the sherlock pipeline to pull these signals out of TESS data that standard pipelines missed, then confirmed them with ground photometry from TRAPPIST, SPECULOOS, ExTrA, and LCO. They also ran dynamical stability tests and found circular models preferred over eccentric ones, with TTVs expected to be only seconds in the first system. TOI-237 c gets flagged as a possible JWST/MIRI phase-curve target because of the small host star and short period. That part is straightforward and useful for expanding the warm super-Earth census around low-mass stars. The multi-facility follow-up and stability checks give the claims some weight, and the radii come with quoted uncertainties. Where it gets softer is the lack of a quantitative false-positive probability or explicit blend modeling, especially for the triple system where activity or unresolved companions can produce similar signals. The abstract gives no breakdown of how detrending choices or data cuts affect the detections, and chromaticity tests are not mentioned. For M dwarfs these are real concerns, so the vetting feels incomplete without those numbers. This is the kind of incremental discovery paper that people building target lists for atmospheric characterization will want to see. A reader working on M-dwarf demographics or JWST planning gets direct value from the new parameters and the resonance note. It is solid enough on the observational side to deserve a serious referee rather than a desk reject, though the review should focus on tightening the false-positive section and error budget. I would send it out for review.","headline":"This adds two new small rocky planets to the TESS M-dwarf sample via sherlock but the false-positive checks look thin on the details provided.","tokens_in":2646,"tokens_out":448,"would_cite":false,"duration_ms":64731,"reading_group":"maybe","serious_thinker":"yes","would_accept_peer_review":true},"rs_alignment":{"model":"grok-4.3","evidence":[],"headline":"Standard TESS exoplanet transit search and validation; no RS-shaped cost, ratio, or forcing machinery","alignment":"orthogonal","rationale":"The paper's core is empirical detection (sherlock/TLS + WATSON vetting + TRICERATOPS FPP + Allesfitter modeling + MEGNO stability) of two rocky planets. This lies entirely in observational astro-ph.EP and has no contact with J-cost, phi-ladder, 8-tick periodicity, or any parameter-free derivation from a single distinction. RS modules on astrophysics/cosmology address structural theorems, not specific transit surveys.","tokens_in":65221,"confidence":"high","tokens_out":148,"duration_ms":14353,"cache_read_input_tokens":16512,"cache_creation_input_tokens":0},"lean_confirmation":null,"pith_extraction":{"msc":[],"pacs":[],"model":"grok-4.3","headline":"Two new rocky planets were found orbiting nearby M dwarfs by searching TESS data below standard detection thresholds.","keywords":["exoplanets","TESS","rocky planets","M dwarfs","transit photometry","super-Earths","radius valley"],"falsifier":"High-cadence photometry or radial-velocity time series that show the signals are aperiodic, have depths inconsistent with the reported radii, or require implausibly high masses would falsify the planetary interpretation.","tokens_in":2762,"feed_emoji":"🪐","tokens_out":767,"duration_ms":44370,"temperature":0.7,"pith_summary":"The Hidden Gems project applies the sherlock pipeline to TESS light curves of confirmed low-mass star systems in order to recover planet candidates that standard SPOC and QLP pipelines missed. In two such systems the pipeline recovered inner transit signals that were then confirmed with ground-based photometry from TRAPPIST, SPECULOOS, ExTrA and LCO. The resulting planets have radii of 1.21 and 1.17 Earth radii, short orbital periods, and sit below the radius valley; dynamical checks indicate both systems are long-term stable. A sympathetic reader would care because these additions enlarge the sample of nearby warm super-Earths that can be targeted for atmospheric or phase-curve work with JWST.","feed_headline":"Sherlock pipeline finds two rocky planets around M dwarfs","feed_subtitle":"Inner candidates in TOI-237 and TOI-4336 systems confirmed as warm super-Earths below the radius valley","key_machinery":"sherlock, a specialized pipeline for robust detection and vetting of transit signals in TESS data that operates below the thresholds set by the SPOC and QLP pipelines","core_discovery":"The Hidden Gems project searches the TESS data for additional planets transiting low-mass stars in confirmed systems using sherlock, a specialized pipeline for robust detection and vetting of transit signals. This search yielded two inner rocky planets: TOI-237 c with radius 1.21 Earth radii on a 1.74-day orbit near 3:1 resonance with the outer planet, and TOI-4336 A c with radius 1.17 Earth radii on a 7.58-day orbit around an M3.5 star in a hierarchical triple. Ground-based photometry confirms both signals, circular-orbit models are statistically preferred, and the systems remain stable under dynamical simulations with TTV amplitudes of only seconds for TOI-237.","pith_inferences":["Repeating the sherlock search across the full set of TESS M-dwarf systems could yield additional small planets that standard pipelines overlooked.","Precise mass measurements of these planets would test whether they are truly rocky and help calibrate the radius-valley boundary for M-dwarf hosts.","Because M dwarfs dominate the stellar population, the occurrence rate of such short-period super-Earths around them constrains models of planet formation and migration."],"forward_implications":["Both planetary systems remain dynamically stable over long timescales.","Expected transit timing variations in the TOI-237 system are only a few seconds in amplitude.","TOI-237 c is a viable target for JWST/MIRI phase-curve observations because of the small host-star radius and short orbital period.","The two planets enlarge the known sample of warm super-Earths that lie below the radius valley."],"fun_headline_variants":["Sherlock detects two rocky planets around nearby M dwarfs","Two rocky planets found by Sherlock in TESS M dwarf systems","Sherlock finds two new rocky planets in M dwarf systems","Two rocky planets detected around M dwarfs by Sherlock"],"cache_read_input_tokens":64,"weakest_assumption_plain":"The periodic dimming signals recovered by sherlock are produced by planets rather than by stellar activity, instrumental noise, or false-positive configurations.","fun_headline_variants_meta":{"raw":{"variants":["Sherlock detects two rocky planets around nearby M dwarfs","Two rocky planets found by Sherlock in TESS M dwarf systems","Sherlock finds two new rocky planets in M dwarf systems","Two rocky planets detected around M dwarfs by Sherlock"]},"model":"grok-4.3","cost_usd":0.020659,"raw_usage":{"total_tokens":8790,"prompt_tokens":838,"num_sources_used":0,"completion_tokens":63,"cost_in_usd_ticks":206587000,"prompt_tokens_details":{"text_tokens":838,"audio_tokens":0,"image_tokens":0,"cached_tokens":256},"completion_tokens_details":{"audio_tokens":0,"reasoning_tokens":7889,"accepted_prediction_tokens":0,"rejected_prediction_tokens":0}},"tokens_in":838,"tokens_out":63,"duration_ms":91945,"temperature":1.0,"reasoning_tokens":7889,"cache_read_input_tokens":256,"cache_creation_input_tokens":0},"cache_creation_input_tokens":0},"created_at":"2026-05-21T14:49:49.302937+00:00","model_set":{"reader":"grok-4.3"},"falsifier":"High-cadence photometry or radial-velocity time series that show the signals are aperiodic, have depths inconsistent with the reported radii, or require implausibly high masses would falsify the planetary interpretation.","supporting_citations":[],"review_version":1}